Editing World War III (section)

==Historical close calls==
{{main|Nuclear warfare}}
{{see also|List of nuclear close calls}}

With the initiation of the [[Cold War]] [[arms race]] in the 1950s, an [[apocalypse|apocalyptic]] war between the United States and the Soviet Union became a real possibility. During the Cold War era (1947–1991), several military events have been described as having come close to potentially triggering World War{{nbsp}}III. Even after the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, some incidents afterward have been described as close calls as well.

=== Korean War: 25 June 1950&nbsp;– 27 July 1953 ===
{{Main|Korean conflict|Korean War}}

The [[Korean War]] was a war between two coalitions fighting for control over the [[Korean Peninsula]]: a communist coalition including [[North Korea]], the People's Republic of China, and the [[Soviet Union]], and a capitalist coalition including [[South Korea]], the United States and the [[United Nations Command]]. Many then believed that the conflict was likely to soon escalate into a full-scale war between the three countries, the U.S., the U.S.S.R., and China. [[CBS News]] war correspondent [[Bill Downs]] wrote in 1951, "To my mind, the answer is: Yes, Korea is the beginning of World War{{nbsp}}III. The brilliant [[Battle of Inchon|landings at Inchon]] and the cooperative efforts of the [[United States Armed Forces|American armed forces]] with the [[United Nations Command|United Nations Allies]] have won us a victory in Korea. But this is only the first battle in a major international struggle which now is engulfing the Far East and the entire world."<ref>{{cite news|last=Downs|first=Bill|title=World War III in Asia?|newspaper=See Magazine|date=March 1951}}</ref> Downs afterwards repeated this belief on ''[[ABC World News Tonight|ABC Evening News]]'' while reporting on the [[USS Pueblo (AGER-2)|USS ''Pueblo'' incident]] in 1968.<ref>{{cite web|last=Downs|first=Bill|title=The USS Pueblo incident|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KBxiX_9_Kk|work=ABC Evening News|publisher=ABC |access-date=8 November 2013|date=25 January 1968|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140615095207/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KBxiX_9_Kk|archive-date=15 June 2014|url-status=live}}</ref> Secretary of State [[Dean Acheson]] later acknowledged that the [[Presidency of Harry S. Truman|Truman administration]] was concerned about the escalation of the conflict and that General [[Douglas MacArthur]] warned him that a U.S.-led intervention risked a Soviet response.<ref>Carson, Austin (2018-12-31), ''Secret Wars: Covert Conflict in International Politics'', Princeton University Press, p. 152, {{doi|10.1515/9780691184241-006}}, {{ISBN|978-0-691-18424-1}}, retrieved 2022-02-16</ref>

=== Berlin Crisis: 4 June – 9 November 1961 ===
{{Main|Berlin Crisis of 1961}}
[[File:US Army tanks face off against Soviet tanks, Berlin 1961.jpg|thumb|250px|United States [[M48 Patton|M48]] tanks face Soviet Army [[T-54/T-55|T-55]] tanks at [[Checkpoint Charlie]], October 1961.]]

The [[Berlin Crisis of 1961]] was a political-military confrontation between the armed forces of the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. at [[Checkpoint Charlie]] with both several American and Soviet/East German tanks and troops at the stand-off at each other only 100 yards on either side of the checkpoint. The reason behind the confrontation was the occupational status of the German capital city, [[Berlin]], and of [[History of Germany (1945–1990)|post–World War II Germany]]. The Berlin Crisis started when the USSR launched an ultimatum demanding the withdrawal of all armed forces from Berlin, including the Western armed forces in [[West Berlin]]. The crisis culminated in the city's de facto partition with the [[East German]] erection of the [[Berlin Wall]]. This stand-off ended peacefully on 28 October following a U.S.–Soviet understanding to withdraw tanks and reduce tensions.

=== Cuban Missile Crisis: 15–29 October 1962 ===
{{Main|Cuban Missile Crisis|Soviet submarine B-59}}
[[File:Soviet b-59 submarine.jpg|thumb|A US Navy [[HSS-1 Seabat]] helicopter hovers over Soviet submarine ''B-59'', forced to the surface by US Naval forces in the Caribbean near Cuba. B-59 had a nuclear torpedo on board, and three officer keys were required to use it. Only one dissent prevented the submarine from attacking the US fleet nearby, a spark that could have led to a Third World War (28–29 October 1962).]]

The [[Cuban Missile Crisis]], a confrontation on the stationing of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba in response to the failed [[Bay of Pigs Invasion]], is considered as having been the closest to a nuclear exchange, which could have precipitated a third World War.<ref>{{cite book|first1=Len|last1=Scott|first2=R. Gerald|last2=Hughes|title=The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Critical Reappraisal|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=UJEGCAAAQBAJ&pg=PT17|year=2015|publisher=Taylor & Francis|page=17|isbn=978-1-317-55541-4|access-date=13 September 2020|archive-date=29 July 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160729014313/https://books.google.com/books?id=UJEGCAAAQBAJ&pg=PT17|url-status=live}}</ref> The crisis peaked on 27 October, with three separate major incidents occurring on the same day:

* The most critical incident occurred when a Soviet submarine nearly launched a [[Nuclear torpedo|nuclear-tipped torpedo]] in response to having been targeted by American naval [[depth charge]]s in international waters, with the Soviet nuclear launch response only having been prevented by [[Soviet Navy]] executive officer [[Vasily Arkhipov (vice admiral)|Vasily Arkhipov]].
* The shooting down of a [[Lockheed U-2]] spy plane piloted by [[Rudolf Anderson]] while violating Cuban airspace.
* The near interception of another U-2 that had strayed into Soviet airspace over [[Siberia]], which airspace violation nearly caused the Soviets to believe that this might be the vanguard of a US aerial bombardment.

Despite what many believe to be the closest the world has come to a nuclear conflict, throughout the entire standoff, the [[Doomsday Clock]], which is run by the ''[[Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists]]'' to estimate how close the end of the world, or doomsday, is, with midnight being the apocalypse, stayed at a relatively stable seven minutes to midnight. This has been explained as being due to the brevity of the crisis since the clock monitored more long-term factors such as the leadership of countries, conflicts, wars, and political upheavals, as well as societies' reactions to said factors.

The ''Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists'' now credits the political developments resulting from the Cuban Missile Crisis with having enhanced global stability. The ''Bulletin'' posits that future crises and occasions that might otherwise escalate, were rendered more stable due to two major factors: 
# A [[Moscow–Washington hotline|Washington to Moscow hotline]] resulted from the communication trouble between the [[White House]] and the [[Kremlin]] during the crisis. This gave the leaders of the two largest nuclear powers the ability to contact each other in real-time, vital when seconds could potentially prevent a nuclear exchange.
# The second factor was caused in part due to the worldwide reaction to how close the US and USSR had come to the brink of World War{{nbsp}}III during the standoff. As the public began to more closely monitor topics involving nuclear weapons, and therefore to rally support for the cause of non-proliferation, the [[Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty|1963 test ban treaty]] was signed. To date this treaty has been signed by 126 total nations, with the most notable exceptions being [[France and weapons of mass destruction|France]] and [[China and weapons of mass destruction|China]]. Both of these countries were still in the relative beginning stages of their nuclear programs at the time of the original treaty signing, and both sought nuclear capabilities independent of their allies. This Test Ban Treaty prevented the testing of nuclear ordnance that detonated in the [[Atmosphere of Earth|atmosphere]], limiting [[nuclear weapons testing]] to below ground and underwater, decreasing [[Nuclear fallout|fallout]] and effects on the environment, and subsequently caused the Doomsday Clock to decrease by five minutes, to arrive at a total of twelve minutes to midnight.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://thebulletin.org/remembering-cuban-missile-crisis |title=Remembering the Cuban Missile Crisis |date=16 October 2012 |website=thebulletin.org |access-date=10 March 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180201052807/https://thebulletin.org/remembering-cuban-missile-crisis |archive-date=1 February 2018 |url-status=live }}</ref> Up until this point, over 1000 nuclear bombs had been detonated, and concerns over both long and short term effects to the planet became increasingly more worrisome to scientists.

=== Sino-Soviet border conflicts: 2 March – 11 September 1969 ===
{{Main|Sino-Soviet border conflict}}
The [[Sino-Soviet border conflict]] was a seven-month undeclared military border war between the [[Soviet Union]] and [[China]] at the height of the [[Sino-Soviet split]] in 1969. The most serious of these border clashes, which brought the world's two largest [[communist state]]s to the brink of war, occurred in March 1969 in the vicinity of [[Sino-Soviet border conflict#Battle of Zhenbao (Damansky) Island|Zhenbao (Damansky) Island]] on the [[Ussuri River|Ussuri (Wusuli) River]], near [[Manchuria]].

The conflict resulted in a ceasefire, with a return to the status quo. Critics point out that the Chinese attack on Zhenbao was to deter any potential future Soviet invasions; that by killing some Soviets, China demonstrated that it could not be 'bullied'; and that Mao wanted to teach them 'a bitter lesson'.

[[Sino-Soviet relations|China's relations with the USSR]] remained sour after the conflict, despite the border talks, which began in 1969 and continued inconclusively for a decade. Domestically, the threat of war caused by the border clashes inaugurated a new stage in the [[Cultural Revolution]]; that of China's thorough militarization. The [[9th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party]], held in the aftermath of the [[Zhenbao Island incident]], confirmed Defense Minister [[Lin Biao]] as [[Mao Zedong]]'s heir apparent.

Following the events of 1969, the Soviet Union further increased its [[Soviet Armed Forces|forces]] along the [[China–Russia border|Sino-Soviet border]], and in the [[Mongolian People's Republic]].

=== Yom Kippur War superpower tensions: 6–25 October 1973 ===
{{Main|Yom Kippur War}}

The [[Yom Kippur War]], also known as the Ramadan War, or October War, began with a surprise invasion of [[Israeli-occupied territories]] by a coalition of Arab states, aided by the Soviet Union. Israel successfully counterattacked with the aid of the US. Tensions grew between the two superpowers: American and Soviet naval forces came close to firing upon each other in the [[Mediterranean Sea]]. Admiral [[Daniel J. Murphy]] of the [[United States Sixth Fleet|US Sixth Fleet]] reckoned the chances of the Soviet squadron attempting a first strike against his fleet at 40 percent. The Pentagon moved Defcon status from 4{{nbsp}}to{{nbsp}}3.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/commentary/the-little-known-us-soviet-confrontation-during-yom-kippur-wa|title=The little-known US-Soviet confrontation during Yom Kippur War|newspaper=The World from PRX|access-date=27 May 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140422135143/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/commentary/the-little-known-us-soviet-confrontation-during-yom-kippur-wa|archive-date=22 April 2014|url-status=live}}</ref> The superpowers had been pushed to the brink of war, but tensions eased with the ceasefire brought in under [[United Nations Security Council Resolution 339|UNSC 339]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/erol-araf-incalculable-consequences|title=Erol Araf: 'Incalculable consequences'|date=7 October 2013|access-date=5 February 2017|archive-date=5 February 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170205101243/http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/erol-araf-incalculable-consequences|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.psupress.org/books/titles/0-271-01489-X.html|title=Inside the Kremlin During the Yom Kippur War By Victor Israelyan|access-date=27 May 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140706024838/http://www.psupress.org/books/titles/0-271-01489-X.html|archive-date=6 July 2014|url-status=live}}</ref>

=== NORAD computer error of 1979: 9 November 1979 ===
The United States made emergency retaliation preparations after [[North American Aerospace Defense Command|NORAD]] systems indicated that a full-scale Soviet attack had been launched.<ref>{{cite web |date=2012-11-20 |title=Norad false alarm causes uproar |url=http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/war-conflict/defence/norad-watching-the-skies/norad-false-alarm-causes-uproar.html |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141108204905/http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/war-conflict/defence/norad-watching-the-skies/norad-false-alarm-causes-uproar.html |archive-date=8 November 2014 |access-date=17 March 2015 |publisher=CBC Canada}}</ref> No attempt was made to use the [[Moscow–Washington hotline]] to clarify the situation with the USSR and it was not until early-warning radar systems confirmed no such launch had taken place that NORAD realized that a computer system test had caused the display errors. A senator inside the NORAD facility at the time described an atmosphere of absolute panic. A GAO investigation led to the construction of an off-site test facility to prevent similar mistakes.<ref>{{cite web|last1=Andrews|first1=Evan|title=5 Cold War Close Calls|url=http://www.history.com/news/history-lists/5-cold-war-close-calls|publisher=The History Channel|access-date=17 March 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141231010823/http://www.history.com/news/history-lists/5-cold-war-close-calls|archive-date=31 December 2014|url-status=live}}</ref>

=== Soviet radar malfunction: 26 September 1983 ===
{{Main|1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident}}

A false alarm occurred on the [[Oko|Soviet nuclear early warning system]], showing the launch of American [[LGM-30 Minuteman]] [[intercontinental ballistic missile]]s from bases in the United States. A retaliatory attack was prevented by [[Stanislav Petrov]], a [[Soviet Air Defence Forces]] officer, who realised the system had simply malfunctioned (which was borne out by later investigations).<ref name="Hoffman-1999">{{cite news | url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/coldwar/shatter021099b.htm | title=I Had A Funny Feeling in My Gut | first=David | last=Hoffman | newspaper=Washington Post | date=10 February 1999 | access-date=18 September 2017 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111130234943/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/coldwar/shatter021099b.htm | archive-date=30 November 2011 | url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="Shane-2003">{{cite web|title=Cold War's Riskiest Moment |publisher=Baltimore Sun, 31 August 2003 (article reprinted as The Nuclear War That Almost Happened in 1983) |url=http://hnn.us/articles/1709.html#bombs9-5-03 |first=Scott |last=Shane |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060819033034/http://hnn.us/articles/1709.html |archive-date=19 August 2006 }}</ref>

=== Able Archer 83 escalations: 2–11 November 1983 ===
{{main|Able Archer 83}}

During [[Able Archer 83]], a ten-day [[NATO]] exercise simulating a period of [[conflict escalation]] that culminated in a [[DEFCON 1]] nuclear strike, some members of the [[Soviet]] [[Politburo of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union|Politburo]] and [[Soviet Armed Forces|armed forces]] treated the events as a [[ruse of war]] concealing a genuine first strike. In response, the military prepared for a coordinated counter-attack by readying nuclear forces and placing air units stationed in the [[Warsaw Pact]] states of [[East Germany]] and [[Poland]] under high alert. However, the state of Soviet preparation for retaliation ceased upon completion of the Able Archer exercises.<ref name="FischerBenj-2007"/>

=== Norwegian rocket incident: 25 January 1995 ===
{{Main|Norwegian rocket incident}}

The [[Norwegian rocket incident]] was the first World War{{nbsp}}III close call to occur after the Cold War had ended. This incident occurred when Russia's [[Olenegorsk Radar Station|Olenegorsk]] [[early warning radar|early warning station]] accidentally mistook the radar signature from a [[Black Brant (rocket)#Black Brant XII|Black Brant XII]] [[sounding rocket|research rocket]] (being jointly launched by Norwegian and US scientists from [[Andøya Rocket Range]]), as appearing to be the radar signature of the launch of a [[Trident missile|Trident]] [[SLBM]] missile. In response, [[President of Russia|Russian President]] [[Boris Yeltsin]] was summoned and the ''[[Cheget]]'' [[nuclear briefcase]] was activated for the first and only time. However, the high command was soon able to determine that the rocket was not entering Russian airspace, and promptly aborted plans for combat readiness and retaliation. It was retrospectively determined that, while the rocket scientists had informed thirty states including Russia about the test launch, the information had not reached Russian radar technicians.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.eucom.mil/article/23042/this-week-in-eucom-history-january-23-29-1995|title=The Norwegian Rocket Incident|publisher=United States European Command|date=23 January 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120921003744/http://www.eucom.mil/article/23042/this-week-in-eucom-history-january-23-29-1995|archive-date=21 September 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/coldwar/shatter031598a.htm|title=Cold-War Doctrines Refuse to Die|first=David|last=Hoffman|publisher=Washington Post Foreign Service|date=15 March 1998|access-date=18 September 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120402042904/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/coldwar/shatter031598a.htm|archive-date=2 April 2012|url-status=live}}</ref>

===Incident at Pristina airport: 12 June 1999===
{{main|Incident at Pristina airport|Mike Jackson (British Army officer)}}

On 12 June 1999, the day following the end of the [[Kosovo War]], some 250 Russian peacekeepers occupied the [[Pristina International Airport Adem Jashari|Pristina International Airport]] ahead of the arrival of [[NATO]] troops and were to secure the arrival of reinforcements by air. American NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General [[Wesley Clark]] ordered the use of force against the Russians.<ref name="Jackson-2007">{{cite book |title=Soldier |first=Mike |last=Jackson |publisher=Transworld Publishers |date=2007 |pages=[https://archive.org/details/soldierautobiogr00jack/page/255 255–275] |isbn=978-0-593-05907-4 |url-access=registration |url=https://archive.org/details/soldierautobiogr00jack/page/255 }}</ref> [[Mike Jackson (British Army officer)|Mike Jackson]], a [[British Army]] general who contacted the Russians during the incident, refused to enforce Clark's orders, famously telling him "I'm not going to start the Third World War for you".<ref name="BBC 2000">{{cite news |author=<!--Staff writer(s); no by-line.--> |title=Confrontation over Pristina airport |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/671495.stm |work=BBC News |date=9 March 2000 |access-date=27 October 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190519141123/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/671495.stm |archive-date=19 May 2019 |url-status=live }}</ref> Captain [[James Blunt]], the lead officer at the front of the NATO column in the direct armed stand-off against the Russians, received the "Destroy!" orders from Clark over the radio, but he followed Jackson's orders to encircle the airfield instead and later said in an interview that even without Jackson's intervention he would have refused to follow Clark's order.<ref name="Peck-2010">{{cite news |last=Peck |first=Tom |date=15 November 2010 |title=How James Blunt saved us from World War 3 |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/news/how-james-blunt-saved-us-from-world-war-3-2134203.html |newspaper=[[The Independent]] |location=London |access-date=2 March 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131214144653/http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/news/how-james-blunt-saved-us-from-world-war-3-2134203.html |archive-date=14 December 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref>

===Shootdown of Sukhoi bomber: 24 November 2015===
{{main|2015 Russian Sukhoi Su-24 shootdown}}

On 24 November 2015, at the border between Turkey and Syria, the [[Turkish Air Force]] shot down a Russian [[Sukhoi]] attack aircraft. The Turks claimed that the aircraft violated Turkish [[airspace]], a claim denied by the Russians; the plane was in the region as part of the [[Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war]], in which Turkey supported opposing forces. The incident was the first destruction of a [[Russian Air Force|Russian]] or [[Soviet Air Forces]] warplane by a [[NATO]] member state since the [[attack on the Sui-ho Dam]] during the Korean War in 1953.<ref name="Gibbons-Neff-2015">{{cite news|last1=Gibbons-Neff|first1=Thomas|title=The last time a Russian jet was shot down by a NATO jet was in 1952|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/11/24/the-last-time-a-russian-jet-was-shot-down-by-a-nato-jet-was-in-1952/|access-date=2 December 2015|newspaper=Washington Post|date=24 November 2015|archive-date=1 December 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151201221520/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/11/24/the-last-time-a-russian-jet-was-shot-down-by-a-nato-jet-was-in-1952/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/11/24/turkey_downing_that_russian_fighter_jet_is_terrible_news_for_the_war_on.html|title=Turkey downing that Russian fighter jet is terrible news for the war on ISIS.|work=Slate Magazine|date=24 November 2015|access-date=25 November 2015|archive-date=24 November 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151124195329/http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/11/24/turkey_downing_that_russian_fighter_jet_is_terrible_news_for_the_war_on.html|url-status=live}}</ref> The incident led to numerous media and individuals commenting that it could have sparked and escalated into a world war.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Don't panic: Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane won't start World War 3 |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12013517/Dont-panic-Turkey-shooting-down-a-Russian-warplane-wont-start-World-War-3.html |access-date=2023-07-18 |website=www.telegraph.co.uk |date=24 November 2015 |archive-date=18 July 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230718120546/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12013517/Dont-panic-Turkey-shooting-down-a-Russian-warplane-wont-start-World-War-3.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Bora |first=Birce |title='Which parts of Syria should be bombed?' |url=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/26/which-parts-of-syria-should-be-bombed |access-date=2023-07-18 |website=www.aljazeera.com |language=en |archive-date=18 July 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230718120546/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/26/which-parts-of-syria-should-be-bombed |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last= |first= |date=2015-11-26 |title=Turkey risks sparking world war, says Iraq's Maliki |url=https://guardian.ng/news/turkey-risks-sparking-world-war-says-iraqs-maliki/ |access-date=2023-07-18 |website=The Guardian Nigeria News - Nigeria and World News |language=en-US |archive-date=18 July 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230718120546/https://guardian.ng/news/turkey-risks-sparking-world-war-says-iraqs-maliki/ |url-status=live }}</ref>