Editing Protectionism (section)

====Growth====
An empirical study by Furceri et al. (2019) concluded that protectionist measures like tariff increases have a significant adverse impact on domestic output and productivity.<ref>{{Cite book |last1=Furceri |first1=Davide |title=Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs |last2=Hannan |first2=Swarnali A. |last3=Ostry |first3=Jonathon D. |last4=Rose |first4=Andrew K. |publisher=International Monetary Fund |year=2019 |isbn=9781484390061 |pages=4}}</ref> A prominent 1999 study by Jeffrey A. Frankel and David H. Romer found while controlling for relevant factors, that free trade does have a positive impact on growth and incomes. The effect is quantitatively large and statistically significant.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Frankel|first1=Jeffrey A|last2=Romer|first2=David|date=June 1999|title=Does Trade Cause Growth?|journal=American Economic Review|language=en|volume=89|issue=3|pages=379–99|doi=10.1257/aer.89.3.379|issn=0002-8282|doi-access=free}}</ref>

Economist [[Arvind Panagariya]] criticizes the view that protectionism is good for growth. Such arguments, according to him, arise from "revisionist interpretation" of [[Four Asian Tigers|East Asian "tigers"]]' economic history. The Asian tigers achieved a rapid increase in per capita income without any "redistributive social programs", through free trade, which advanced Western economies took a century to achieve.<ref name=":6" /><ref>{{Cite book |last=Panagariya |first=Arvind |url=https://global.oup.com/academic/product/free-trade-and-prosperity-9780190914493?cc=us&lang=en& |title=Free Trade and Prosperity: How Openness Helps the Developing Countries Grow Richer and Combat Poverty |date=2019 |publisher=Oxford University Press |isbn=978-0-19-091449-3 |location=Oxford, New York}}</ref>

According to economic historians Findlay and O'Rourke, there is a consensus in the economics literature that protectionist policies in the interwar period "hurt the world economy overall, although there is a debate about whether the effect was large or small."<ref name=":3" />

According to Dartmouth economist [[Douglas Irwin]], "that there is a correlation between high tariffs and growth in the late nineteenth century cannot be denied. But correlation is not causation... there is no reason for necessarily thinking that import protection was a good policy just because the economic outcome was good: the outcome could have been driven by factors completely unrelated to the tariff, or perhaps could have been even better in the absence of protection."<ref name=":2">{{Cite journal|last=Irwin|first=Douglas A.|date=1 January 2001|title=Tariffs and Growth in Late Nineteenth-Century America|journal=World Economy|language=en|volume=24|issue=1|pages=15–30|doi=10.1111/1467-9701.00341|issn=1467-9701|citeseerx=10.1.1.200.5492|s2cid=153647738}}</ref> Irwin furthermore writes that "few observers have argued outright that the high tariffs caused such growth."<ref name=":2" />

One study by the economic historian Brian Varian found no correlation between tariffs and growth among the Australian colonies in the late nineteenth century, a time when each of the colonies had the independence to set their own tariffs.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Varian |first=Brian D. |date=2022 |title=Revisiting the tariff-growth correlation: The Australasian colonies, 1866–1900 |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aehr.12233 |journal=Australian Economic History Review |language=en |volume=62 |issue=1 |pages=47–65 |doi=10.1111/aehr.12233 |issn=0004-8992}}</ref>

According to Oxford economic historian Kevin O'Rourke, "It seems clear that protection was important for the growth of US manufacturing in the first half of the 19th century; but this does not necessarily imply that the tariff was beneficial for GDP growth. Protectionists have often pointed to German and American industrialization during this period as evidence in favor of their position, but economic growth is influenced by many factors other than trade policy, and it is important to control for these when assessing the links between tariffs and growth."<ref>{{Cite journal|last=H. O'Rourke|first=Kevin|date=1 November 2000|title=British trade policy in the 19th century: a review article|journal=European Journal of Political Economy|volume=16|issue=4|pages=829–42|doi=10.1016/S0176-2680(99)00043-9}}</ref>