Editing Reaganomics (section)

===Tax receipts===
[[File:CBO 1981 forecast of impact of Reagan tax cuts vs baseline.png|thumb|right|350px|Both the Reagan Administration and CBO forecast that the Reagan tax cuts would reduce revenues relative to a policy baseline without them, by about $50 billion in 1982 and $210 billion in 1986.<ref name="autogenerated1981">{{cite web|url=https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/97th-congress-1981-1982/reports/81doc11b.pdf|title=An Analysis of President Reagan's Budget Revisions for Fiscal Year 1982-See Table 4|date=March 25, 1981|website=cbo.gov|access-date=June 14, 2020|archive-date=February 4, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200204193012/https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/97th-congress-1981-1982/reports/81doc11b.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref>]]
Both CBO and the Reagan Administration forecast that individual and business income tax revenues would be lower if the Reagan tax cut proposals were implemented, relative to a policy baseline without those cuts, by about $50 billion in 1982 and $210 billion by 1986.<ref name="autogenerated1981"/> According to a 2003 Treasury study, the tax cuts in the [[Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981]] resulted in a significant decline in revenue relative to a baseline without the cuts, approximately $111 billion (in 1992 dollars) on average during the first four years after implementation or nearly 3% GDP annually.<ref>{{cite web |author=Thorndike, Joseph J |publisher=Taxhistory.org |title=Historical Perspective: The Reagan Legacy |date=June 14, 2004 |url=http://www.taxhistory.org/thp/readings.nsf/cf7c9c870b600b9585256df80075b9dd/3df8b954567e6c8c85256eb300588d4b?OpenDocument |access-date=November 28, 2007 |archive-date=February 25, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210225011518/http://www.taxhistory.org/thp/readings.nsf/cf7c9c870b600b9585256df80075b9dd/3df8b954567e6c8c85256eb300588d4b?OpenDocument |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name=taxtable/> Other tax bills had neutral or, in the case of the [[Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982]], a (~+1% of GDP) increase in revenue as a share of GDP. The study did not examine the longer-term impact of Reagan tax policy, including sunset clauses and "the long-run, {{Sic|hide=y|fully|-}}phased-in effect of the tax bills".<ref name=taxtable>{{cite web|author=Treasury Department|publisher=[[United States Department of the Treasury]]|title=Revenue Effects of Major Tax Bills|date=September 1, 2006|url=https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/tax-policy/tax-analysis/Documents/WP-81.pdf|id=Working Paper 81, Table 2|access-date=November 28, 2007|archive-date=February 25, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200225053543/https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/tax-policy/tax-analysis/Documents/WP-81.pdf|url-status=dead}}</ref> The fact that tax receipts ''as a percentage of GDP'' fell following the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 shows a decrease in tax burden as share of GDP and a commensurate increase in the deficit, as spending did not fall relative to GDP. Total federal tax receipts increased in every Reagan year except 1982, at an annual average rate of 6.2% compared to 10.8% during the preceding eight years.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kbmr | title=Federal government current tax receipts | date=January 1947 | access-date=June 15, 2018 | archive-date=June 16, 2018 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180616030618/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kbmr | url-status=live }}</ref>

The effect of Reagan's 1981 tax cuts (reduced revenue relative to a baseline without the cuts) were at least partially offset by phased in Social Security payroll tax increases that had been enacted by President Jimmy Carter and the 95th Congress in 1977, and further increases by Reagan in 1983<ref>Agresti, James D. and Stephen F. Cardone (January 27, 2011).[http://www.justfacts.com/socialsecurity.asp#%5B27%5D Social Security Facts] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110807133916/http://www.justfacts.com/socialsecurity.asp#%5B27%5D |date=August 7, 2011 }}. Retrieved March 22, 2011.</ref> and following years, also to counter the uses of tax shelters.<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/downmarketing-tax-shelters|title=The Downmarketing Of Tax Shelters|date=January 18, 2018|work=Tax Policy Center|access-date=January 18, 2018|language=en|archive-date=January 19, 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180119120337/http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/downmarketing-tax-shelters|url-status=live}}</ref> An accounting indicated nominal tax receipts increased from $599 billion in 1981 to $1.032 trillion in 1990, an increase of 72% in current dollars. In 2005 dollars, the tax receipts in 1990 were $1.5 trillion, an increase of 20% above inflation.<ref>{{cite web|url= https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/hist01z3.xls|format= xls|title= Table 1.3 – Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-) in Current Dollars, Constant (FY 2005) Dollars, and as Percentages of GDP: 1940–2015|publisher= [[Office of Management and Budget]]|access-date= October 12, 2010|archive-date= October 9, 2021|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20211009105732/https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/hist01z3.xls|url-status= live}}</ref>