Editing Contras (section)

==Military successes and election of Violeta Chamorro==
By 1986 the contras were besieged by charges of corruption, human-rights abuses, and military ineptitude.<ref>{{cite magazine
|title = Nicaragua Is It Curtains?
|magazine=[[Time (magazine)|Time]]
|url = http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,963090-1,00.html
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20111111011218/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,963090-1,00.html
|url-status = dead
|archive-date = 11 November 2011
|date = 22 December 1986
|first = Jill
|last = Smolowe}}</ref> A much-vaunted early 1986 offensive never materialized, and Contra forces were largely reduced to isolated acts of terrorism.<ref name="Todd"/> In October 1987, however, the contras staged a successful attack in southern Nicaragua.<ref>"The last major attack, in October along the Rama Road in southern Nicaragua, was considered a success for the guerrillas." As seen at: {{cite news
|title = Both Sides Report Heavy Fighting in Rebel Offensive in Nicaragua
|work=The New York Times
|url = https://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/22/world/both-sides-report-heavy-fighting-in-rebel-offensive-in-nicaragua.html?pagewanted=all
|date = 22 December 1987
|first = James
|last = Lemoyne
|access-date =30 April 2010}}</ref> Then on 21 December 1987, the FDN launched attacks at [[Bonanza, Nicaragua|Bonanza]], [[Siuna, Nicaragua|Siuna]], and [[Rosita, Nicaragua|Rosita]] in [[Zelaya Department|Zelaya province]], resulting in heavy fighting.<ref name="Lemoyne">{{cite news
|title = Both Sides Report Heavy Fighting in Rebel Offensive in Nicaragua
|work=The New York Times
|url = https://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/22/world/both-sides-report-heavy-fighting-in-rebel-offensive-in-nicaragua.html?pagewanted=all
|date = 22 December 1987
|first = James
|last = Lemoyne
|access-date =30 April 2010}}</ref> ARDE Frente Sur attacked at [[El Almendro]] and along the Rama road.<ref name="Lemoyne"/><ref>{{cite news
|title = Contras' Top Fighter Vows No Letup
|work=The New York Times
|url = https://www.nytimes.com/1988/02/02/world/contras-top-fighter-vows-no-letup.html?pagewanted=all
|date = 2 February 1988
|first = James
|last = Lemoyne}}</ref><ref>Meara, William R. ''Contra Cross: Insurgency And Tyranny in Central America, 1979–1989''. U.S. Naval Institute Press, 2006.</ref> These large-scale raids mainly became possible as the contras were able to use U.S.-provided [[FIM-43 Redeye|Redeye missiles]] against Sandinista [[Mi-24]] helicopter gunships, which had been supplied by the Soviets.<ref name="Lemoyne"/><ref>{{cite news
|title = Sandinistas report capture of RedEye Missile
|work=The New York Times
|url = https://www.nytimes.com/1987/07/23/world/sandinistas-report-capture-of-redeye-missile.html?n=Top%2FReference%2FTimes+Topics%2FSubjects%2FU%2FUnited+States+International+Relations
|date = 23 July 1987
|first = Stephen
|last = Kinzer
|access-date =30 April 2010}}</ref> Nevertheless, the Contras remained tenuously encamped within Honduras and were not able to hold Nicaraguan territory.<ref>{{cite news
|title = Enough Have Died for Nothing in Nicaragua
|newspaper = Wilmington Morning Star
|url = https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=QjtOAAAAIBAJ&pg=6933,5372009&dq=nicaragua&hl=en
|date = 14 August 1989
|first = Tom
|last = Wicker
|access-date =27 June 2011}}</ref><ref>{{cite news
|title = New Regional Accord Leaves Contras in Honduras Fearful but Defiant
|work=The New York Times
|url = https://www.nytimes.com/1989/08/14/world/new-regional-accord-leaves-the-contras-in-honduras-fearful-but-defiant.html?src=pm
|date = 14 August 1989
|first = Mark
|last = Ulig
|access-date =27 June 2011}}</ref>

There were isolated protests among the population against the draft implemented by the Sandinista government, which even resulted in full-blown street clashes in Masaya in 1988.<ref>"Sometimes they used force as they rounded up young men for military service, and there were occasional confrontations. But only in the town of Masaya, 19 miles southeast of the capital of Managua, did the conscription spark a full-blown street clash&nbsp;... For several weeks before the latest outburst in Masaya, the opposition newspaper, La Prensa, had been reporting isolated protests against the draft." As seen at: {{cite news
|title = The World: Nicaragua; Pushed From Left or Right, Masaya Balks
|work=The New York Times
|url = https://www.nytimes.com/1988/02/28/weekinreview/the-world-nicaragua-pushed-from-left-or-right-masaya-balks.html
|date = 28 February 1988
|first = Stephen
|last = Kinzer
|access-date =30 April 2010}}</ref> However, a June 1988 survey in Managua showed the Sandinista government still enjoyed strong support but that support had declined since 1984. Three times as many people identified with the Sandinistas (28%) than with all the opposition parties put together (9%); 59% did not identify with any political party. Of those polled, 85% opposed any further US aid to the Contras; 40% believed the Sandinista government to be democratic, while 48% believed it to be not democratic. People identified the war as the largest problem but were less likely to blame it for economic problems compared to a December 1986 poll; 19% blamed the war and US blockade as the main cause of economic problems while 10% blamed the government.<ref>{{cite web
|title = Sandinistas Surviving in a Percentage Game
|publisher = Envio
|url = http://www.envio.org.ni/articulo/3072
|date = December 1988
}}</ref> Political opposition groups were splintered and the Contras began to experience defections, although United States aid maintained them as a viable military force.<ref>{{cite web
|title = Nicaraguans Try Peace Moves While Waiting for U.S. Voters
|publisher = Envio
|url = http://www.envio.org.ni/articulo/3066
|date = November 1988
}}</ref><ref>{{cite web
|title = Contra Insurgency in Nicaragua
|publisher = OnWar.com
|url = http://www.onwar.com/aced/data/november/nicaragua1981.htm
|date = December 2000
|access-date = 21 May 2011
|archive-date = 29 June 2011
|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110629062507/http://www.onwar.com/aced/data/november/nicaragua1981.htm
|url-status = dead
}}</ref>

After a cutoff in U.S. military support, and with both sides facing international pressure to bring an end to the conflict, the contras agreed to negotiations with the FSLN. With the help of five Central American presidents, including Ortega, the sides agreed that a voluntary demobilization of the contras should start in early December 1989. They chose this date to facilitate free and fair elections in Nicaragua in February 1990 (even though the [[Presidency of Ronald Reagan|Reagan administration]] had pushed for a delay of contra disbandment).<ref>[https://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/washingtonpost/access/73891981.html?dids=73891981:73891981&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Aug+09%2C+1989&author=John+M.+Goshko%3B+Ann+Devroy&pub=The+Washington+Post+%28pre-1997+Fulltext%29&desc=U.S.+Endorses+Contra+Plan+as+Prod+to+Democracy+in+Nicaragua&pqatl=google "U.S. Endorses Contra Plan as Prod to Democracy in Nicaragua"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130206094847/http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/washingtonpost/access/73891981.html?dids=73891981:73891981&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Aug+09%2C+1989&author=John+M.+Goshko%3B+Ann+Devroy&pub=The+Washington+Post+%28pre-1997+Fulltext%29&desc=U.S.+Endorses+Contra+Plan+as+Prod+to+Democracy+in+Nicaragua&pqatl=google |date=6 February 2013 }} The Washington Post, 9 August 1989</ref>

In the resulting [[1990 Nicaraguan general election|February 1990 elections]], [[Violeta Chamorro]] and her party the [[National Opposition Union (Nicaragua, 1990)|UNO]] won an upset victory of 55% to 41% over [[Daniel Ortega]].<ref>{{cite news
|title = Turnover in Nicaragua; Nicaraguan Opposition Routs Sandinistas; U.S. Pledges Aid, Tied to Orderly Turnover
|work = The New York Times
|url = https://www.nytimes.com/1990/02/27/world/turnover-nicaragua-nicaraguan-opposition-routs-sandinistas-us-pledges-aid-tied.html
|date = 27 February 1990
|first = Mark A.
|last = Uhlig
|access-date =30 April 2010}}</ref> Opinion polls leading up to the elections divided along partisan lines, with 10 of 17 polls analyzed in a contemporary study predicting an UNO victory while seven predicted the Sandinistas would retain power.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Bischoping |first1=Katherine |last2=Schuman |first2=Howard |title=Pens and Polls in Nicaragua: An Analysis of the 1990 Pre-election Surveys |journal=American Journal of Political Science |date=May 1992 |volume=36 |issue=2 |pages=331–350 |doi=10.2307/2111480 |jstor=2111480 |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/270277995 |access-date=3 July 2020}}</ref><ref name="Envio">{{cite web|title = After the Poll Wars-Explaining the Upset|publisher = Envio|url = http://www.envio.org.ni/articulo/2591|date = March 1990}}</ref>

Possible explanations include that the Nicaraguan people were disenchanted with the Ortega government as well as the fact that already in November 1989, the White House had announced that the economic embargo against Nicaragua would continue unless [[Violeta Chamorro]] won.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20130117074255/http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-1222025.html "Bush Vows to End Embargo if Chamorro Wins"], ''The Washington Post'', 9 November 1989</ref> Also, there had been reports of intimidation from the side of the contras,<ref>"The policy of keeping the contras alive&nbsp;... also has placed in jeopardy the holding of elections by encouraging contra attacks on the electoral process. Thus, while the Bush administration proclaims its support for human rights and free and fair elections in Nicaragua, it persists in sabotaging both." As seen at: [https://www.hrw.org/legacy/reports/1989/WR89/Nicaragu.htm "Nicaragua"] Human Rights Watch, 1990</ref> with a Canadian observer mission claiming that 42 people were killed by the contras in "election violence" in October 1989.<ref>[https://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/471113751.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Oct+27%2C+1989&author=%28CP%29&pub=Toronto+Star&desc=U.S.+trying+to+disrupt+election+in+Nicaragua%2C+Canadians+report&pqatl=google "U.S. trying to disrupt election in Nicaragua, Canadians report"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130206094906/http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/471113751.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Oct+27%2C+1989&author=%28CP%29&pub=Toronto+Star&desc=U.S.+trying+to+disrupt+election+in+Nicaragua%2C+Canadians+report&pqatl=google |date=6 February 2013 }} The Toronto Star, 27 October 1989</ref> Sandinistas were also accused of intimidation and abuses during the election campaign. According to the Puebla Institute, by mid-December 1989, seven opposition leaders had been murdered, 12 had disappeared, 20 had been arrested, and 30 others assaulted. In late January 1990, the OAS observer team reported that "a convoy of troops attacked four truckloads of UNO sympathizers with bayonets and rifle butts, threatening to kill them."<ref>{{Cite web|title=The Sandinistas Might Lose|url=https://www.nytimes.com/1990/02/12/opinion/the-sandinistas-might-lose.html|date=1990-02-12|access-date=2021-09-27|website=The New York Times|language=en}}</ref> This led many commentators to conclude that Nicaraguans voted against the Sandinistas out of fear of a continuation of the contra war and economic deprivation.<ref name="Envio"/>