Editing Al-Qaeda (section)

== Strategy ==
{{Update section|date=August 2016}}

In the disagreement over whether al-Qaeda's objectives are religious or political, Mark Sedgwick describes al-Qaeda's strategy as political in the immediate term but with ultimate aims that are religious.<ref name="SEDGWICK">{{cite journal|last1=Sedgwick |first1=Mark|title=Al-Qaeda and the Nature of Religious Terrorism|journal=Terrorism and Political Violence|date=August 10, 2010|volume=16|issue=4|pages=795–814|doi=10.1080/09546550590906098|s2cid=143323639}}</ref>
On March 11, 2005, ''[[Al-Quds Al-Arabi]]'' published extracts from [[Saif al-Adel]]'s document "Al Qaeda's Strategy to the Year 2020".<ref name=Atwan>{{cite book|url=https://archive.org/details/secrethistoryofa0000atwa|url-access=registration|first1=Abdel Bari|last1=Atwan|title=The Secret History of Al Qaeda|page=[https://archive.org/details/secrethistoryofa0000atwa/page/221 221]|publisher=University of California Press|isbn=0-520-24974-7|via=Internet Archive|date=March 11, 2005|access-date=May 8, 2011}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnewstt_news&#93;=181&tx_ttnewsbackPid&#93;=238&no_cache=1|title=single – The Jamestown Foundation|access-date=April 12, 2016}}{{dead link|date=November 2017 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref> [[Abdel Bari Atwan]] summarizes this strategy as comprising five stages to rid the [[Ummah]] from all forms of oppression:
# Provoke the United States and the West into invading a Muslim country by staging a massive attack or string of attacks on US soil that results in massive civilian casualties.
# Incite local resistance to occupying forces.
# Expand the conflict to neighboring countries and engage the US and its allies in a long war of attrition.
# Convert al-Qaeda into an ideology and set of operating principles that can be loosely franchised in other countries without requiring direct command and control, and via these franchises incite attacks against the US and countries allied with the US until they withdraw from the conflict, as happened with the [[2004 Madrid train bombings]], but which did not have the same effect with the [[July 7, 2005 London bombings]].
# The US economy will finally collapse by 2020, under the strain of multiple engagements in numerous places. This will lead to a collapse in the worldwide economic system, and lead to global political instability. This will lead to a global jihad led by al-Qaeda, and a [[Wahhabi]] [[Caliphate]] will then be installed across the world.

Atwan noted that, while the plan is unrealistic, "it is sobering to consider that this virtually describes the [[Dissolution of the Soviet Union|downfall of the Soviet Union]]."<ref name=Atwan />

According to [[Fouad Hussein]], a Jordanian journalist and author who has spent time in prison with Al-Zarqawi, al-Qaeda's strategy consists of seven phases and is similar to the plan described in al-Qaeda's Strategy to the year 2020. These phases include:<ref>{{cite news|last1=Musharbash|first1=Yassir|title=The Future of Terrorism: What al-Qaida Really Wants|url=http://www.spiegel.de/international/the-future-of-terrorism-what-al-qaida-really-wants-a-369448.html|access-date=January 15, 2015|work=Der Spiegel|date=August 12, 2005|archive-date=January 20, 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150120022303/http://www.spiegel.de/international/the-future-of-terrorism-what-al-qaida-really-wants-a-369448.html|url-status=live}}</ref>
# "The Awakening." This phase was supposed to last from 2001 to 2003. The goal of the phase is to provoke the United States to attack a Muslim country by executing an attack that kills many civilians on US soil.
# "Opening Eyes." This phase was supposed to last from 2003 to 2006. The goal of this phase was to recruit young men to the cause and to transform the al-Qaeda group into a movement. Iraq was supposed to become the center of all operations with financial and military support for bases in other states.
# "Arising and Standing up", was supposed to last from 2007 to 2010. In this phase, al-Qaeda wanted to execute additional attacks and focus their attention on Syria. Hussein believed other countries in the [[Arabian Peninsula]] were also in danger.
# Al-Qaeda expected a steady growth among their ranks and territories due to the declining power of the regimes in the Arabian Peninsula. The main focus of attack in this phase was supposed to be on oil suppliers and [[cyberterrorism]], targeting the US economy and military infrastructure.
# The declaration of an Islamic Caliphate, which was projected between 2013 and 2016. In this phase, al-Qaeda expected the resistance from Israel to be heavily reduced.
# The declaration of an "Islamic Army" and a "fight between believers and non-believers", also called "total confrontation".
# "Definitive Victory", projected to be completed by 2020.

According to the seven-phase strategy, the war is projected to last less than two years.

According to Charles Lister of the [[Middle East Institute]] and Katherine Zimmerman of the [[American Enterprise Institute]], the new model of al-Qaeda is to "socialize communities" and build a broad territorial base of operations with the support of local communities, also gaining income independent of the funding of sheiks.<ref>{{Cite news|date=April 5, 2016|title=What has happened to al-Qaeda?|publisher=[[BBC News]]|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35967409|access-date=August 29, 2022|archive-date=August 29, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220829074753/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35967409|url-status=live}}</ref>