Editing Extreme weather (section)

=== Climate change===
{{Further|Effects of climate change#Weather|Effects of climate change on the water cycle}}
[[File:20211107_Projected_extremes_for_different_degrees_of_global_warming_-_3x10yr_area_chart_-_IPCC_AR6_WG1_SPM.svg|thumb|The [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report]] (2021) projects progressively large increases in both the frequency (horizontal bars) and intensity (vertical bars) of extreme weather events, for increasing degrees of global warming—including more than a 5{{nbsp}}°C increase in extreme heat events for a 4{{nbsp}}°C global average temperature increase.<ref>{{cite web |date=9 August 2021 |title=Climate Change 2021 / The Physical Science Basis / Working Group I contribution to the WGI Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / Summary for Policymakers |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211104175351/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf |archive-date=4 November 2021 |website=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |at=Fig. SPM.6 (p. 18), 23}}</ref>]]
Some studies assert a connection between rapidly warming arctic temperatures and thus a vanishing [[cryosphere]] to extreme weather in mid-latitudes.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Francis|first1=Jennifer A.|last2=Vavrus|first2=Stephen J.|year=2012|title=Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes|journal=[[Geophysical Research Letters]]|volume=39|issue=6|pages=L06801|bibcode=2012GeoRL..39.6801F|doi=10.1029/2012GL051000|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|author1=Vladimir Petoukhov|author2=Vladimir A. Semenov|date=November 2010|title=A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents|url=http://oceanrep.geomar.de/8738/1/2009JD013568-pip.pdf|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres|volume=115|issue=21|pages=D21111|bibcode=2010JGRD..11521111P|doi=10.1029/2009JD013568|doi-access=free|access-date=2019-09-24|archive-date=2017-08-09|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170809050422/http://oceanrep.geomar.de/8738/1/2009JD013568-pip.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="Screen 2013">{{cite journal|author=J A Screen|date=November 2013|title=Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation|journal=Environmental Research Letters|volume=8|issue=4|page=044015|bibcode=2013ERL.....8d4015S|doi=10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044015|doi-access=free|hdl=10871/14835|hdl-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|author1=Qiuhong Tang|author2=Xuejun Zhang|author3=Jennifer A. Francis|date=December 2013|title=Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere|journal=Nature Climate Change|volume=4|issue=1|pages=45–50|bibcode=2014NatCC...4...45T|doi=10.1038/nclimate2065}}</ref> In a study published in Nature in 2019, scientists used several simulations to determine that the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica could affect overall sea level and sea temperature.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Golledge|first1=Nicholas R.|last2=Keller|first2=Elizabeth D.|last3=Gomez|first3=Natalya|last4=Naughten|first4=Kaitlin A.|last5=Bernales|first5=Jorge|last6=Trusel|first6=Luke D.|last7=Edwards|first7=Tamsin L.|date=February 2019|title=Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt|url=http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-0889-9|journal=Nature|language=en|volume=566|issue=7742|pages=65–72|doi=10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9|pmid=30728520|bibcode=2019Natur.566...65G|s2cid=59606358|issn=0028-0836|access-date=2021-05-05|archive-date=2021-06-19|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210619182658/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-0889-9|url-status=live}}</ref> Other models have shown that modern temperature rise and the subsequent addition of meltwater to the ocean could lead to a disruption of the thermohaline circulation, which is responsible for the movement of seawater and distribution of heat around the globe.<ref name=":6">{{Cite journal|last1=Caesar|first1=L.|last2=McCarthy|first2=G. D.|last3=Thornalley|first3=D. J. R.|last4=Cahill|first4=N.|last5=Rahmstorf|first5=S.|date=March 2021|title=Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium|url=http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00699-z|journal=Nature Geoscience|language=en|volume=14|issue=3|pages=118–120|doi=10.1038/s41561-021-00699-z|bibcode=2021NatGe..14..118C|s2cid=232052381|issn=1752-0894|access-date=2021-05-05|archive-date=2021-06-17|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210617050415/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00699-z|url-status=live}}</ref> A collapse of this circulation in the northern hemisphere could lead to an increase in extreme temperatures in Europe, as well as more frequent storms by throwing off natural climate variability and conditions.<ref name=":6" /> Thus, as increasing temperatures cause glaciers to melt, mid-latitudes could experience shifts in weather patterns or temperatures.<ref name=":6" />

There were around 6,681 climate-related events reported during 2000-2019, compared to 3,656 climate-related events reported during 1980–1999.<ref name=":3">{{Cite book |title=Human Cost of Disasters |date=2020 |publisher=United Nations |isbn=978-92-1-005447-8 |doi=10.18356/79b92774-en |s2cid=243258946}}</ref> In this report, a 'climate-related event' refers to floods, storms, droughts, landslides, extreme temperatures (like heat waves or freezes), and wildfires; it excludes geophysical events such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, or mass movements.<ref name=":3" /> While there is evidence that a changing global climate, such as an increase in temperature, has impacted the frequency of extreme weather events, the most significant effects are likely to arise in the future. This is where climate models are useful, for they can provide simulations of how the atmosphere may behave over time and what steps need to be taken in the present day to mitigate any negative changes.<ref name=":2">{{Citation |last=Oreskes |first=Naomi |author-link=Naomi Oreskes |title=Why Believe a Computer? Models, Measures, and Meaning in the Natural World |date=2018-02-19 |work=The Earth Around Us |pages=70–82 |publisher=Routledge |doi=10.4324/9780429496653-8 |isbn=978-0-429-49665-3}}</ref>

The increasing probability of record week-long heat extremes occurrence depends on warming rate, rather than global warming level.<ref>{{cite news |date=28 July 2021 |title=Extreme heat waves in a warming world don't just break records – they shatter them |language=en-us |work=PBS NewsHour |url=https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/extreme-heat-waves-in-a-warming-world-dont-just-break-records-they-shatter-them |url-status=live |access-date=13 August 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210812163807/https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/extreme-heat-waves-in-a-warming-world-dont-just-break-records-they-shatter-them |archive-date=12 August 2021}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Fischer |first1=E. M. |last2=Sippel |first2=S. |last3=Knutti |first3=R. |date=August 2021 |title=Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes |journal=Nature Climate Change |language=en |volume=11 |issue=8 |pages=689–695 |bibcode=2021NatCC..11..689F |doi=10.1038/s41558-021-01092-9 |issn=1758-6798 |s2cid=236438374 |doi-access=free|pmid=39650282 |pmc=7617090 }}</ref>

Some researchers attribute increases in extreme weather occurrences to more reliable reporting systems.<ref name=":3" /> A difference in what qualifies as 'extreme weather' in varying climate systems could also be argued. Over or under reporting of casualties or losses can lead to inaccuracy in the impact of extreme weather.  However, the UN reports show that, although some countries have experienced greater effects, there have been increases in extreme weather events on all continents.<ref name=":3" /> Current evidence and climate models show that an increasing global temperature will intensify extreme weather events around the globe, thereby amplifying human loss, damages and economic costs, and ecosystem destruction.{{Citation needed|date=August 2022}}

====Tropical cyclones and climate change====
{{ multiple image |total_width=450
| image1= 1980- Atlantic region category 4 and 5 hurricanes - NYTimes and NOAA.svg |caption1= The 20-year average of the number of annual Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic region has approximately doubled since the year 2000.<ref name=NYTimes_20220929>{{cite news |last1=Leonhardt |first1=David |last2=Moses |first2=Claire |last3=Philbrick |first3=Ian Prasad |title=Ian Moves North / Category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes since 1980 |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/briefing/hurricane-ian-storm-climate-change.html |newspaper=The New York Times |date=29 September 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220930003545/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/briefing/hurricane-ian-storm-climate-change.html |archive-date=30 September 2022 |quote=Source: NOAA - Graphic by Ashley Wu, ''The New York Times'' |url-status=live }} ([https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1980-_Atlantic_region_category_4_and_5_hurricanes_-_NYTimes_and_NOAA.svg cites for 2022— data])</ref>
| image2= 1980- Cost of billion dollar hurricanes - US - variwide chart - NOAA data.svg |caption2= The number of $1&nbsp;billion Atlantic hurricanes almost doubled from the 1980s to the 2010s, and inflation-adjusted costs have increased more than elevenfold.<ref name=NYTimes_20221202/> The increases have been attributed to climate change and to greater numbers of people moving to coastal areas.<ref name=NYTimes_20221202>{{cite news |last1=Philbrick |first1=Ian Pasad |last2=Wu |first2=Ashley |title=Population Growth Is Making Hurricanes More Expensive |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/briefing/why-hurricanes-cost-more.html |newspaper=The New York Times |date=2 December 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221206130032/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/briefing/why-hurricanes-cost-more.html |archive-date=6 December 2022 |url-status=live }} Newspaper states data source: NOAA.</ref>
}}
In 2020, the [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] (NOAA) of the U.S. government predicted that, over the 21st Century, the frequency of tropical storms and Atlantic hurricanes would decline by 25 percent while their maximum intensity would rise by 5 percent.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Knutson |first=Tom |title=Global Warming and Hurricanes |url=https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200416100717/https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ |archive-date=2020-04-16 |access-date=2020-08-29 |website=www.gfdl.noaa.gov |language=en-US}}</ref>

{{excerpt|Tropical cyclones and climate change|paragraphs=1-2}}

==== Floods ====
{{See also|Effects of climate change#Effects on weather|Effects of climate change on the water cycle}}
[[File:Day_185_-_what_California's_drought_conditions_look_like_from_the_air.jpg|alt=A reservoir with low water levels surrounded by dry, golden hills.|thumb|A California reservoir in 2015 with low water levels due to drought conditions. From [[2011–2017 California drought|2011 to 2017]], California experienced one of it's driest periods in recorded history.'''<ref>{{Cite web |title=California Is No Stranger to Dry Conditions, but the Drought from 2011-2017 Was Exceptional {{!}} Drought.gov |url=https://www.drought.gov/california-no-stranger-dry-conditions-drought-2011-2017-was-exceptional |access-date=2025-04-04 |website=www.drought.gov |language=en}}</ref>''']]
[[Climate change]] has led to an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of certain types of extreme weather.<ref>{{Cite book |last1=Seneviratne |first1=Sonia I. |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}} |last2=Zhang |first2=Xuebin |last3=Adnan |first3=M. |last4=Badi |first4=W. |last5=Dereczynski |first5=Claudine |last6=Di Luca |first6=Alejandro |last7=Ghosh |first7=S. |year=2021 |page=1517 |chapter=Chapter 11: Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate |display-authors=4 |access-date=2022-05-13 |chapter-url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_11.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220529195626/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_11.pdf |archive-date=2022-05-29 |url-status=live}} in {{Cite book |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf |title=Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis |publisher=Cambridge University Press (In Press) |year=2021 |isbn= |editor1-last=Masson-Delmotte |editor1-first=V. |series=Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report|Sixth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |place= |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR6 WG1|2021}} |access-date=2022-05-13 |editor2-last=Zhai |editor2-first=P. |editor3-last=Pirani |editor3-first=A. |editor4-last=Connors |editor4-first=S. L. |editor5-last=Péan |editor5-first=C. |editor6-last=Berger |editor6-first=S. |editor7-last=Caud |editor7-first=N. |editor8-last=Chen |editor8-first=Y. |editor9-last=Goldfarb |editor9-first=L. |display-editors=4 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210813201719/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf |archive-date=2021-08-13 |url-status=live |editor10-first=M. I. |editor10-last=Gomis}}</ref> Storms such as hurricanes or tropical cyclones may experience greater rainfall, causing major flooding events or landslides by saturating soil. This is because warmer air is able to 'hold' more moisture due to the water molecules having increased kinetic energy, and precipitation occurs at a greater rate because more molecules have the critical speed needed to fall as rain drops.<ref name=":5">{{Cite web |last=US EPA |first=OAR |date=2016-06-27 |title=Climate Change Indicators: U.S. and Global Precipitation |url=https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-us-and-global-precipitation |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210616125220/https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-us-and-global-precipitation |archive-date=2021-06-16 |access-date=2021-05-05 |website=US EPA |language=en}}</ref>