Editing Nuclear power (section)

=== Uranium resources ===
{{Main|Uranium market|Uranium mining|Energy development#Nuclear}}
[[File:Uranium enrichment proportions (horizontal).svg|upright=2|thumb|Proportions of the isotopes [[uranium-238]] (blue) and uranium-235 (red) found in natural uranium and in [[enriched uranium]] for different applications. Light water reactors use 3{{ndash}}5% enriched uranium, while [[CANDU]] reactors work with natural uranium.]]
[[Uranium]] is a fairly common [[chemical element|element]] in the Earth's crust: it is approximately as common as [[tin]] or [[germanium]], and is about 40 times more common than [[silver]].<ref>{{cite encyclopedia |url=http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/uranium.aspx |title=uranium Facts, information, pictures &#124; Encyclopedia.com articles about uranium |encyclopedia=Encyclopedia.com |date=2001-09-11 |access-date=2013-06-14 |archive-date=2016-09-13 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160913203913/http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/uranium.aspx |url-status=live }}</ref> Uranium is present in trace concentrations in most rocks, dirt, and ocean water, but is generally economically extracted only where it is present in relatively high concentrations. Uranium mining can be underground, [[Open-pit mining|open-pit]], or [[in-situ leach]] mining. An increasing number of the highest output mines are remote underground operations, such as [[McArthur River uranium mine]], in Canada, which by itself accounts for 13% of global production. As of 2011 the world's known resources of uranium, economically recoverable at the arbitrary price ceiling of US$130/kg, were enough to last for between 70 and 100 years.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/docs/policy-briefs/201101_RSU_PolicyBrief_1-2nd_Thought_Nuclear-Sovacool.pdf |title=Second Thoughts About Nuclear Power |website=A Policy Brief – Challenges Facing Asia |date=January 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130116084833/http://spp.nus.edu.sg/docs/policy-briefs/201101_RSU_PolicyBrief_1-2nd_Thought_Nuclear-Sovacool.pdf |archive-date=January 16, 2013 |access-date=September 11, 2012 |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url= http://www.nea.fr/html/general/press/2008/2008-02.html | title= Uranium resources sufficient to meet projected nuclear energy requirements long into the future | date= 2008-06-03 | publisher= [[Nuclear Energy Agency]] (NEA) | access-date= 2008-06-16 | archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20081205121250/http://www.nea.fr/html/general/press/2008/2008-02.html | archive-date= 2008-12-05 | url-status= dead }}</ref><ref name="Red">{{cite book |year=2008 |title=Uranium 2007 – Resources, Production and Demand |url=http://www.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/display.asp?sf1=identifiers&st1=9789264047662 |publisher=[[Nuclear Energy Agency]], [[Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development]] |isbn=978-92-64-04766-2 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090130092151/http://www.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/display.asp?sf1=identifiers&st1=9789264047662 |archive-date=2009-01-30 }}</ref> In 2007, the OECD estimated 670 years of economically recoverable uranium in total conventional resources and [[phosphate]] ores assuming the then-current use rate.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter4.pdf |title=Energy Supply |page=271 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071215202932/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter4.pdf |archive-date=2007-12-15}} and table 4.10.</ref>

Light water reactors make relatively inefficient use of nuclear fuel, mostly using only the very rare uranium-235 isotope.<ref name="wna-wmitnfc">{{cite web |url=http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf04.html |title=Waste Management in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle |access-date=2006-11-09 |publisher=World Nuclear Association |year=2006 |website=Information and Issue Briefs |archive-date=2010-06-11 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100611201409/http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf04.html |url-status=dead }}</ref> [[Nuclear reprocessing]] can make this waste reusable, and newer reactors also achieve a more efficient use of the available resources than older ones.<ref name="wna-wmitnfc"/> With a pure [[fast reactor]] fuel cycle with a burn up of all the uranium and [[actinide]]s (which presently make up the most hazardous substances in nuclear waste), there is an estimated 160,000 years worth of uranium in total conventional resources and phosphate ore at the price of 60–100 US$/kg.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter4.pdf |title=Energy Supply |page=271 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071215202932/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter4.pdf |archive-date=2007-12-15}} and figure 4.10.</ref> However, reprocessing is expensive, possibly dangerous and can be used to manufacture nuclear weapons.<ref name="repr"/><ref name="future1">{{cite web |title=Toward an Assessment of Future Proliferation Risk |url=https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/blogs.gwu.edu/dist/3/1964/files/2021/03/Mark_Hibbs.pdf |access-date=25 November 2021 |archive-date=25 November 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211125145228/https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/blogs.gwu.edu/dist/3/1964/files/2021/03/Mark_Hibbs.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="pluto">{{cite journal |last1=Zhang |first1=Hui |title=Plutonium reprocessing, breeder reactors, and decades of debate: A Chinese response |journal=Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists |date=1 July 2015 |volume=71 |issue=4 |pages=18–22 |doi=10.1177/0096340215590790 |s2cid=145763632 |language=en |issn=0096-3402}}</ref><ref name="civlib">{{cite journal |last1=Martin |first1=Brian |date=1 January 2015 |title=Nuclear power and civil liberties |url=https://ro.uow.edu.au/lhapapers/2126/ |url-status=live |journal=Faculty of Law, Humanities and the Arts – Papers (Archive) |pages=1–6 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211125145241/https://ro.uow.edu.au/lhapapers/2126/ |archive-date=25 November 2021 |access-date=26 November 2021}}</ref><ref name="detect">{{cite journal |last1=Kemp |first1=R. Scott |title=Environmental Detection of Clandestine Nuclear Weapon Programs |journal=Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences |date=29 June 2016 |volume=44 |issue=1 |pages=17–35 |doi=10.1146/annurev-earth-060115-012526 |bibcode=2016AREPS..44...17K |hdl=1721.1/105171 |url=https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-earth-060115-012526 |language=en |issn=0084-6597 |quote=Although commercial reprocessing involves large, expensive facilities, some of which are identifiable in structure, a small, makeshift operation using standard industrial supplies is feasible (Ferguson 1977, US GAO 1978). Such a plant could be constructed to have no visual signatures that would reveal its location by overhead imaging, could be built in several months, and once operational could produce weapon quantities of fissile material in several days |hdl-access=free |access-date=26 November 2021 |archive-date=25 November 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211125145230/https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-earth-060115-012526 |url-status=live }}</ref> One analysis found that uranium prices could increase by two orders of magnitude between 2035 and 2100 and that there could be a shortage near the end of the century.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Monnet |first1=Antoine |last2=Gabriel |first2=Sophie |last3=Percebois |first3=Jacques |title=Long-term availability of global uranium resources |journal=Resources Policy |date=1 September 2017 |volume=53 |pages=394–407 |doi=10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.07.008 |bibcode=2017RePol..53..394M |language=en |issn=0301-4207 |url=https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01530739/file/2016_MONNET_diff.pdf |quote=However, it can be seen that the simulation in scenario A3 stops in 2075 due to a shortage: the R/P ratio cancels itself out. The detailed calculations also show that even though it does not cancel itself out in scenario C2, the R/P ratio constantly deteriorates, falling from 130 years in 2013 to 10 years around 2100, which raises concerns of a shortage around that time. The exploration constraints thus affect the security of supply. |access-date=1 December 2021 |archive-date=31 October 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211031090212/https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01530739/file/2016_MONNET_diff.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> A 2017 study by researchers from [[Massachusetts Institute of Technology|MIT]] and [[Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution|WHOI]] found that "at the current consumption rate, global conventional reserves of terrestrial uranium (approximately 7.6 million tonnes) could be depleted in a little over a century".<ref>{{cite conference |last1=Haji |first1=Maha N. |last2=Drysdale |first2=Jessica |last3=Buesseler |first3=Ken |last4=Slocum |first4=Alexander H. |title=Ocean Testing of a Symbiotic Device to Harvest Uranium From Seawater Through the Use of Shell Enclosures |book-title=Proceedings of the 27th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference |date=25 June 2017 |url=https://onepetro.org/ISOPEIOPEC/proceedings-abstract/ISOPE17/All-ISOPE17/ISOPE-I-17-356/17896 |publisher=International Society of Offshore and Polar |via=OnePetro |language=en |access-date=28 November 2021 |archive-date=26 November 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211126185614/https://onepetro.org/ISOPEIOPEC/proceedings-abstract/ISOPE17/All-ISOPE17/ISOPE-I-17-356/17896 |url-status=live }}</ref> Limited uranium-235 supply may inhibit substantial expansion with the current nuclear technology.<ref name="sol1"/> While various ways to reduce dependence on such resources are being explored,<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Chen |first1=Yanxin |last2=Martin |first2=Guillaume |last3=Chabert |first3=Christine |last4=Eschbach |first4=Romain |last5=He |first5=Hui |last6=Ye |first6=Guo-an |title=Prospects in China for nuclear development up to 2050 |journal=Progress in Nuclear Energy |date=1 March 2018 |volume=103 |pages=81–90 |doi=10.1016/j.pnucene.2017.11.011 |bibcode=2018PNuE..103...81C |s2cid=126267852 |language=en |issn=0149-1970 |url=https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-01908268/file/Chen%20-%202018%20-%20PNE%20-%20Chinese%20scenarios%20up%20to%202050.pdf |access-date=1 December 2021 |archive-date=16 December 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211216102121/https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-01908268/file/Chen%20-%202018%20-%20PNE%20-%20Chinese%20scenarios%20up%20to%202050.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Gabriel |first1=Sophie |last2=Baschwitz |first2=Anne |last3=Mathonnière |first3=Gilles |last4=Eleouet |first4=Tommy |last5=Fizaine |first5=Florian |title=A critical assessment of global uranium resources, including uranium in phosphate rocks, and the possible impact of uranium shortages on nuclear power fleets |journal=Annals of Nuclear Energy |date=1 August 2013 |volume=58 |pages=213–220 |doi=10.1016/j.anucene.2013.03.010 |bibcode=2013AnNuE..58..213G |language=en |issn=0306-4549}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Shang |first1=Delei |last2=Geissler |first2=Bernhard |last3=Mew |first3=Michael |last4=Satalkina |first4=Liliya |last5=Zenk |first5=Lukas |last6=Tulsidas |first6=Harikrishnan |last7=Barker |first7=Lee |last8=El-Yahyaoui |first8=Adil |last9=Hussein |first9=Ahmed |last10=Taha |first10=Mohamed |last11=Zheng |first11=Yanhua |last12=Wang |first12=Menglai |last13=Yao |first13=Yuan |last14=Liu |first14=Xiaodong |last15=Deng |first15=Huidong |last16=Zhong |first16=Jun |last17=Li |first17=Ziying |last18=Steiner |first18=Gerald |last19=Bertau |first19=Martin |last20=Haneklaus |first20=Nils |title=Unconventional uranium in China's phosphate rock: Review and outlook |journal=Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews |date=1 April 2021 |volume=140 |page=110740 |doi=10.1016/j.rser.2021.110740 |bibcode=2021RSERv.14010740S |s2cid=233577205 |language=en |issn=1364-0321}}</ref> new nuclear technologies are considered to not be available in time for climate change mitigation purposes or competition with alternatives of renewables in addition to being more expensive and require costly research and development.<ref name="sol1"/><ref name="10.5281/zenodo.5573718"/><ref name="mil1"/> A study found it to be uncertain whether identified resources will be developed quickly enough to provide uninterrupted fuel supply to expanded nuclear facilities<ref>{{cite web |title=USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2012–5239: Critical Analysis of World Uranium Resources |url=https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2012/5239/ |website=pubs.usgs.gov |access-date=28 November 2021 |archive-date=19 January 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220119075200/http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2012/5239/ |url-status=live }}</ref> and various forms of mining may be challenged by ecological barriers, costs, and land requirements.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Barthel |first=F. H. |date=2007 |title=Thorium and unconventional uranium resources |url=https://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:39023282 |url-status=live |language=en |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211128121630/https://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:39023282 |archive-date=2021-11-28 |access-date=2021-11-28 |website=International Atomic Energy Agency}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Dungan |first1=K. |last2=Butler |first2=G. |last3=Livens |first3=F. R. |last4=Warren |first4=L. M. |title=Uranium from seawater – Infinite resource or improbable aspiration? |journal=Progress in Nuclear Energy |date=1 August 2017 |volume=99 |pages=81–85 |doi=10.1016/j.pnucene.2017.04.016 |bibcode=2017PNuE...99...81D |language=en |issn=0149-1970}}</ref> Researchers also report considerable import dependence of nuclear energy.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Fang |first1=Jianchun |last2=Lau |first2=Chi Keung Marco |last3=Lu |first3=Zhou |last4=Wu |first4=Wanshan |title=Estimating Peak uranium production in China – Based on a Stella model |journal=Energy Policy |date=1 September 2018 |volume=120 |pages=250–258 |doi=10.1016/j.enpol.2018.05.049 |bibcode=2018EnPol.120..250F |s2cid=158066671 |language=en |issn=0301-4215|url=https://pure.hud.ac.uk/en/publications/4f2be679-fb50-4267-81ef-7cb2a5fe0f1d }}</ref><ref name="10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.024"/><ref name="10.1016/j.anucene.2017.08.019"/><ref name="10.1002/ente.201600444"/>

Unconventional uranium resources also exist. Uranium is naturally present in seawater at a concentration of about 3 [[microgram]]s per liter,<ref name="books.google.ie">{{Cite book |last1=Ferronsky |first1=V. I. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=OeEUcIRsIwAC&q=Radium+and+thorium+isotopes+in+the+surface+waters+of+the+East+Pacific+and+coastal+southern+California.+Earth+Planet.+Sci.+Lett.,+39:+235249.&pg=PA598 |title=Isotopes of the Earth's Hydrosphere |last2=Polyakov |first2=V. A. |publisher=Springer |year=2012 |isbn=978-94-007-2856-1 |page=399}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/toxprofiles/tp147.pdf |title=Toxicological profile for thorium |year=1990 |publisher=Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry |page=76 |quote=world average concentration in seawater is 0.05 μg/L (Harmsen and De Haan 1980) |access-date=2018-10-09 |archive-date=2018-04-22 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180422083351/https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/toxprofiles/tp147.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Huh |first1=C. A. |last2=Bacon |first2=M. P. |year=2002 |title=Determination of thorium concentration in seawater by neutron activation analysis |journal=Analytical Chemistry |volume=57 |issue=11 |pages=2138–2142 |doi=10.1021/ac00288a030}}</ref> with 4.4 billion tons of uranium considered present in seawater at any time.<ref name="gepr.org" /> In 2014 it was suggested that it would be economically competitive to produce nuclear fuel from seawater if the process was implemented at large scale.<ref>{{Cite journal |doi=10.3390/jmse2010081|title=Development of a Kelp-Type Structure Module in a Coastal Ocean Model to Assess the Hydrodynamic Impact of Seawater Uranium Extraction Technology|journal=Journal of Marine Science and Engineering|volume=2|pages=81–92|year=2014|last1=Wang|first1=Taiping|last2=Khangaonkar|first2=Tarang|last3=Long|first3=Wen|last4=Gill|first4=Gary|issue=1 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2014JMSE....2...81W }}</ref> Like fossil fuels, over geological timescales, uranium extracted on an industrial scale from seawater would be replenished by both river erosion of rocks and the natural process of uranium [[leaching (metallurgy)|dissolved]] from the surface area of the ocean floor, both of which maintain the [[Solubility equilibrium|solubility equilibria]] of seawater concentration at a stable level.<ref name="gepr.org">{{cite web|url=http://www.gepr.org/en/contents/20130729-01/|title=The current state of promising research into extraction of uranium from seawater – Utilization of Japan's plentiful seas|first=Noriaki|last=Seko|publisher=Global Energy Policy Research|date=July 29, 2013|access-date=October 9, 2018|archive-date=October 9, 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181009172251/http://www.gepr.org/en/contents/20130729-01/|url-status=live}}</ref> Some commentators have argued that this strengthens the case for [[Nuclear power proposed as renewable energy|nuclear power to be considered a renewable energy]].<ref>{{cite journal |vauthors=Alexandratos SD, Kung S |journal=Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research |date=April 20, 2016 |volume=55 |issue=15 |pages=4101–4362 |title=Uranium in Seawater |doi=10.1021/acs.iecr.6b01293 |doi-access=free}}</ref>