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=== Cycles or fluctuations? === The Business Cycle follows changes in stock prices which are mostly caused by external factors such as socioeconomic conditions, inflation, exchange rates. [[Intellectual capital]] does not affect a company stock's current earnings. [[Intellectual capital]] contributes to a stock's return growth.<ref>copied from Wikipedia article [[Intellectual capital]] The Impact of Intellectual Capital on a Firmβs Stock Return | Evidence from Indonesia | Ari Barkah Djamil, Dominique Razafindrambinina, Caroline Tandeans | Journal of Business Studies Quarterly 2013, Volume 5, Number 2</ref> Unlike long-term trends, medium-term data fluctuations are connected to the monetary policy transmission mechanism and its role in regulating inflation during an economic cycle. At the same time, the presence of nominal restrictions in price setting behavior might impact the short-term course of inflation.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Mkrtchyan |first1=Ashot |last2=Dabla-Norris |first2=Era |last3=Stepanyan |first3=Ara |date=2009-03-01 |title=A New Keynesian Model of the Armenian Economy |url=https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1372944 |language=en |location=Rochester, NY|ssrn=1372944 }}</ref> In recent years economic theory has moved towards the study of ''economic fluctuation'' rather than a "business cycle"<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Mankiw |first1=Gregory |year=1989 |title=Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective |journal=The Journal of Economic Perspectives |volume=3 |issue=3 |pages=79β90 |issn=0895-3309 |jstor=1942761 |doi=10.1257/jep.3.3.79|doi-access=free }}</ref> β though some economists use the phrase 'business cycle' as a convenient shorthand. For example, [[Milton Friedman]] said that calling the business cycle a "cycle" is a [[misnomer]], because of its non-cyclical nature. Friedman believed that for the most part, excluding very large supply shocks, business declines are more of a monetary phenomenon.<ref>{{cite book|title=Money in Historical Perspective|last=Schwartz|first=Anna J.|year=1987 |publisher= University of Chicago Press|isbn= 978-0226742281 |pages=24β77 |url= https://books.google.com/books?id=w2DFBgAAQBAJ&pg=PR4 }}</ref> [[Arthur F. Burns]] and [[Wesley C. Mitchell]] define business cycle as a form of fluctuation. In economic activities, a cycle of expansions happening, followed by recessions, contractions, and revivals. All of which combine to form the next cycle's expansion phase; this sequence of change is repeated but not periodic.<ref>Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell. (1946). (p.3). "Measuring Business Cycles."</ref> {{Further|Scarcity development cycle}}
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