Editing Stephen Schneider (scientist) (section)

==Early work==
Schneider grew up on [[Long Island, New York]]. He studied engineering at [[Columbia University]], receiving his bachelor's degree in [[mechanical engineering]] in 1966. In 1971, he earned a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering and [[plasma physics]].<ref name="Nuzzo2005">{{Cite journal | last1 = Nuzzo | first1 = R. | title = Profile of Stephen H. Schneider| doi = 10.1073/pnas.0507327102 | journal = [[Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences]] | volume = 102 | issue = 44 | pages = 15725–15727 | year = 2005 | pmid = 16249332 | pmc =1276082 | bibcode = 2005PNAS..10215725N | doi-access = free }}</ref> Schneider studied the role of greenhouse gases and suspended particulate material on climate as a postdoctoral fellow at NASA's [[Goddard Institute for Space Studies]]. Schneider was awarded the [[Marshall Scholarship]].

In 1971, Schneider was second author on a ''[[Science (journal)|Science]]'' paper with [[S. Ichtiaque Rasool]] titled "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate" (''Science'' 173, 138–141). This paper used a one-dimensional [[radiative transfer model]] to examine the competing effects of cooling from aerosols and warming from CO<sub>2</sub>. The paper concluded that:

{{quote|[I]t is projected that man's potential to pollute will increase six- to eightfold in the next 50 years. If this increased rate of injection of particulate matter in the atmosphere should raise the present background opacity by a factor of 4, our calculations suggest a decrease in global temperature by as much as 3.5 K. Such a large decrease in the average temperature of Earth, sustained over a period of few years, is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age. However, by that time, nuclear power may have largely replaced fossil fuels as a means of energy production.<ref>{{cite journal |author=Rasool SI, Schneider SH |title=Atmospheric carbon dioxide and aerosols: effects of large increases on global climate |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |volume=173 |issue=3992 |pages=138–41 |date=July 1971 |pmid=17739641 |doi=10.1126/science.173.3992.138 |bibcode=1971Sci...173..138R |s2cid=43228353 }}</ref>}}

Carbon dioxide was predicted to have only a minor role. However, the model was very simple and the calculation of the CO<sub>2</sub> effect was lower than other estimates by a factor of about three, as noted in a footnote to the paper.

The story made headlines in ''[[The New York Times]]''. Shortly afterwards, Schneider became aware that he had overestimated the cooling effect of aerosols, and underestimated the warming effect of CO<sub>2</sub> by a factor of about three. He had mistakenly assumed that measurements of air particles he had taken near the source of pollution applied worldwide. He also found that much of the effect was due to natural aerosols which would not be affected by human activities, so the cooling effect of changes in industrial pollution would be much less than he had calculated. Having found that recalculation showed that global warming was the more likely outcome, he published a retraction of his earlier findings in 1974.<ref>[[Fred Pearce|Pearce, Fred]], ''The Climate Files: The Battle for the Truth about Global Warming'', (2010) [[Guardian Books]], {{ISBN|978-0-85265-229-9}}, pp. 24–27. "When he redid the maths, the balance between warming and cooling now tipped strongly towards warming."</ref>

In a 1976 book ''The Genesis Strategy'' he discusses both long-term warming due to carbon dioxide and short-term cooling due to aerosols,<ref>Stephen H. Schneider and Lynne E. Mesirow, ''The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival'', Plenum, April 1976. [http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/schneider-genesis.html Quotes] (accessed 22 October 2014)</ref> and advocated for adopting policies that are resilient to future changes in climate.<ref>The reference is to the story of Joseph, in ''[[The Book of Genesis|Genesis]]'' 41-42, who advises the Pharaoh to store harvest from years of abundant harvest to prepare for years of famine.</ref>