Editing Moore's law (section)

== History ==
In 1959, [[Douglas Engelbart]] studied the projected downscaling of integrated circuit (IC) size, publishing his results in the article "Microelectronics, and the Art of Similitude".<ref name=engelbart>{{cite book|last=Engelbart|first=Douglas C.|title=1960 IEEE International Solid-State Circuits Conference. Digest of Technical Papers |chapter=Microelectronics and the art of similitude |author-link=Douglas Engelbart|chapter-url=https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/1157297|publisher=IEEE|date=Feb 12, 1960|volume=III |pages=76–77 |doi=10.1109/ISSCC.1960.1157297 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180620032756/https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/1157297/|archive-date=Jun 20, 2018|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name=markoff>{{cite news|last=Markoff|first=John|author-link=John Markoff|title=It's Moore's Law But Another Had The Idea First|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/18/technology/18moore.html|access-date=October 4, 2011|newspaper=The New York Times|date=April 18, 2005|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120304111901/http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/18/technology/18moore.html|archive-date=March 4, 2012|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/science/01trans.html?ref=science |title=After the Transistor, a Leap into the Microcosm |newspaper=The New York Times |date=August 31, 2009 |access-date=2009-08-31 |first=John |last=Markoff|author-link=John Markoff}}</ref> Engelbart presented his findings at the 1960 [[International Solid-State Circuits Conference]], where Moore was present in the audience.<ref>{{cite news|last=Markoff|first=John|author-link=John Markoff|title=Smaller, Faster, Cheaper, Over: The Future of Computer Chips|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/27/technology/smaller-faster-cheaper-over-the-future-of-computer-chips.html|access-date=September 28, 2015|newspaper=The New York Times|date=September 27, 2015}}</ref>

In 1965, Gordon Moore, who at the time was working as the director of research and development at [[Fairchild Semiconductor]], was asked to contribute to the thirty-fifth-anniversary issue of ''[[Electronics (magazine)|Electronics]]'' magazine with a prediction on the future of the semiconductor components industry over the next ten years.<ref>{{cite book |last=Kovacich |first=Gerald L. |title=The Information Systems Security Officer's Guide: Establishing and Managing a Cyber Security Program |publisher=Butterworth-Heinemann |year=2016 |isbn=978-0-12-802190-3 |edition=3rd |location=Oxford |pages=72 |language=en}}</ref> His response was a brief article entitled "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits".<ref name="Moore 1965" /><ref>{{cite web| year =2005| url =ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Video-Transcripts/Excepts_A_Conversation_with_Gordon_Moore.pdf| title =Excerpts from a conversation with Gordon Moore: Moore's Law| page =1| publisher =[[Intel Corporation]]| access-date =2020-04-01| archive-url =https://web.archive.org/web/20121029060050/http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Video-Transcripts/Excepts_A_Conversation_with_Gordon_Moore.pdf| archive-date =2012-10-29| url-status =dead}}</ref>{{efn|In April 2005, Intel offered US$10,000 to purchase a copy of the original ''Electronics'' issue in which Moore's article appeared.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.zdnet.com/article/intel-offers-10000-for-moores-law-magazine/|title=Intel offers $10,000 for Moore's Law magazine|last=Kanellos|first=Michael|date=2005-04-11|publisher=ZDNET News.com|access-date=2013-06-21}}</ref> An engineer living in the United Kingdom was the first to find a copy and offer it to Intel.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4472549.stm|title=Moore's Law original issue found|date=2005-04-22|access-date=2012-08-26|work=[[BBC News|BBC News Online]]}}</ref>}} Within his editorial, he speculated that by 1975 it would be possible to contain as many as {{val|65,000}} components on a single quarter-square-inch (~&nbsp;{{val|1.6|u=cm2}}) semiconductor.

<blockquote>The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years.<ref name="Moore 1965"/></blockquote>

Moore posited a log–linear relationship between device complexity (higher circuit density at reduced cost) and time.<ref name=schaller>{{cite web|last1=Schaller|first1=Bob|title=The Origin, Nature, and Implications of 'MOORE'S LAW'|date=September 26, 1996|url=http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/gray/moore_law.html|access-date=September 10, 2014|publisher=Microsoft}}</ref><ref name="Tuomi2002">{{cite journal | doi = 10.5210/fm.v7i11.1000| title = The Lives and Death of Moore's Law| journal = First Monday| volume = 7| issue = 11| year = 2002| last1 = Tuomi | first1 = I. | doi-access = free}}</ref> In a 2015 interview, Moore noted of the 1965 article: "...&nbsp;I just did a wild extrapolation saying it's going to continue to double every year for the next 10 years."<ref name="Moore 2015a"/> One historian of the law cites [[Stigler's law of eponymy]], to introduce the fact that the regular doubling of components was known to many working in the field.<ref name="Tuomi2002"/>

In 1974, [[Robert H. Dennard]] at [[IBM]] recognized the rapid MOSFET scaling technology and formulated what became known as [[Dennard scaling]], which describes that as MOS transistors get smaller, their [[power density]] stays constant such that the power use remains in proportion with area.<ref name=cartesian/><ref>{{cite book |last1=Streetman | first1=Ben G. | author1-link=Ben G. Streetman |last2=Banerjee |first2=Sanjay Kumar |author2-link=Sanjay Banerjee | title=Solid state electronic devices | publisher=Pearson | location=Boston | year=2016 | isbn=978-1-292-06055-2 | oclc=908999844 | page=341}}</ref> Evidence from the semiconductor industry shows that this inverse relationship between power density and [[Density_(computer_storage)|areal density]] broke down in the mid-2000s.<ref name="Turing Award Lecture 2018"/>

At the 1975 [[IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting]], Moore revised his forecast rate,<ref name="Takahashi">{{cite news |last=Takahashi |first=Dean |date=April 18, 2005 |title=Forty years of Moore's law |newspaper=Seattle Times |location=San Jose, California |url=http://www.seattletimes.com/business/forty-years-of-moores-law/ |access-date=April 7, 2015 |quote=A decade later, he revised what had become known as Moore's Law: The number of transistors on a chip would double every two years.}}</ref><ref name="Moore 1975b"/> predicting semiconductor complexity would continue to double annually until about 1980, after which it would decrease to a rate of doubling approximately every two years.<ref name="Moore 1975b"/><ref name="Moore 2006">{{cite book |last=Moore |first=Gordon |editor-last=Brock |editor-first=David |title=Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation |publisher=Chemical Heritage Foundation |date=2006 |pages=67–84 |chapter=Chapter 7: Moore's law at 40 |chapter-url=http://www.chemheritage.org/Downloads/Publications/Books/Understanding-Moores-Law/Understanding-Moores-Law_Chapter-07.pdf |access-date=March 22, 2018 |isbn=978-0-941901-41-3|url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304050107/http://www.chemheritage.org/Downloads/Publications/Books/Understanding-Moores-Law/Understanding-Moores-Law_Chapter-07.pdf |archive-date=2016-03-04}}</ref><ref  name="Intel 2011-05">{{cite press release |title=Over 6 Decades of Continued Transistor Shrinkage, Innovation |url=http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/standards-22-nanometers-technology-backgrounder.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120617144740/http://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/public/us/en/documents/backgrounders/standards-22-nanometers-technology-backgrounder.pdf |archive-date=2012-06-17 |url-status=dead |publisher=[[Intel Corporation]] |date=May 2011 |quote=1965: Moore's Law is born when Gordon Moore predicts that the number of transistors on a chip will double roughly every year (a decade later, in 1975, Moore published an update, revising the doubling period to every 2 years) |access-date=2023-03-25}}</ref> He outlined several contributing factors for this exponential behavior:<ref name="schaller"/><ref name="Tuomi2002"/>
* The advent of [[metal–oxide–semiconductor]] (MOS) technology
* The exponential rate of increase in die sizes, coupled with a decrease in defective densities, with the result that semiconductor manufacturers could work with larger areas without losing reduction yields
* Finer minimum dimensions
* What Moore called "circuit and device cleverness"

Shortly after 1975, [[Caltech]] professor [[Carver Mead]] popularized the term ''Moore's law''.<ref name="IntelInterview">{{cite book |title=Understanding Moore's law: four decades of innovation |date=2006 |publisher=Chemical Heritage Foundation |isbn=978-0941901413 |editor-last1=Brock |editor-first1=David C. |location=Philadelphia, Pennsylvania}}</ref><ref name="SSCSnewsletterSept06">in reference to [[Gordon E. Moore]]'s statements at the IEEE. {{cite web |date=September 2006 |title=Moore's Law – The Genius Lives On |url=http://www.ieee.org/sscs-news |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070713083830/http://www.ieee.org/portal/site/sscs/menuitem.f07ee9e3b2a01d06bb9305765bac26c8/index.jsp?&pName=sscs_level1_article&TheCat=2165&path=sscs%2F06Sept&file=Gelsinger.xml |archive-date=2007-07-13 |access-date=2006-11-22 |publisher=IEEE solid-state circuits society newsletter}}</ref> Moore's law eventually came to be widely accepted as a goal for the semiconductor industry, and it was cited by competitive semiconductor manufacturers as they strove to increase processing power. Moore viewed his eponymous law as surprising and optimistic: "Moore's law is a violation of [[Murphy's law]]. Everything gets better and better."<ref>{{cite news|url=http://economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3798505| title = Moore's Law at 40 – Happy birthday|date=2005-03-23| newspaper=The Economist| access-date = 2006-06-24}}</ref> The observation was even seen as a [[self-fulfilling prophecy]].<ref name=Disco1998/><ref>
{{cite web
 | url = http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/1014782/gordon-moore-aloha-moore-law
 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20091106055601/http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/1014782/gordon-moore-aloha-moore-law
 | url-status = dead
 | archive-date = November 6, 2009
 | title = Gordon Moore Says Aloha to Moore's Law
 | publisher = the Inquirer
 | date = April 13, 2005
 | access-date = September 2, 2009
}}</ref>

The doubling period is often misquoted as 18 months because of a separate prediction by Moore's colleague, Intel executive [[David House (computer designer)|David House]].<ref>{{cite book |last1=Meador |first1=Dan |title=Building Data Science Solutions with Anaconda: A comprehensive starter guide to building robust and complete models |last2=Goldsmith |first2=Kevin |publisher=Packt Publishing Limited |year=2022 |isbn=978-1-80056-878-5 |location=Birmingham, UK |pages=9 |language=en}}</ref> In 1975, House noted that Moore's revised law of doubling transistor count every 2 years in turn implied that computer chip performance would roughly double every 18 months,<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.pressreader.com/usa/technowize-magazine/20170501/282445643992141 |title=The Immutable Connection between Moore's Law and Artificial Intelligence |newspaper=Technowize Magazine |date=May 2017  |access-date=2018-08-24}}</ref> with no increase in power consumption.<ref name="news.cnet.com">{{cite web |url=http://news.cnet.com/2100-1001-984051.html |title=Moore's Law to roll on for another decade |quote=Moore also affirmed he never said transistor count would double every 18 months, as is commonly said. Initially, he said transistors on a chip would double every year. He then recalibrated it to every two years in 1975. David House, an Intel executive at the time, noted that the changes would cause computer performance to double every 18 months. |access-date=2011-11-27}}</ref> Mathematically, Moore's law predicted that transistor count would double every 2 years due to shrinking transistor dimensions and other improvements.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Sandhie |first1=Zarin Tasnim |title=Beyond Binary Memory Circuits: Multiple-Valued Logic |last2=Ahmed |first2=Farid Uddin |last3=Chowdhury |first3=Masud H. |publisher=Springer Nature |year=2022 |isbn=978-3-031-16194-0 |location=Cham, Switzerland |pages=1 |language=en}}</ref> As a consequence of shrinking dimensions, Dennard scaling predicted that power consumption per unit area would remain constant. Combining these effects, David House deduced that computer chip performance would roughly double every 18 months. Also due to Dennard scaling, this increased performance would not be accompanied by increased power, i.e., the energy-efficiency of [[silicon]]-based computer chips roughly doubles every 18 months. Dennard scaling ended in the 2000s.<ref name="Turing Award Lecture 2018"/> Koomey later showed that a similar rate of efficiency improvement predated silicon chips and Moore's law, for technologies such as vacuum tubes.

[[File:Osbourne Executive (34 365).jpg|thumb|upright=1.4|A 1982 [[Osborne Executive]] portable computer, with a 4&nbsp;MHz 8-bit [[Zilog Z80]] CPU, and a 2007 [[Apple Inc.|Apple]] [[iPhone]] with a 412&nbsp;MHz 32-bit [[ARM11]] CPU; the Executive has 100 times the weight, almost 500 times the volume, approximately 10 times the inflation-adjusted cost, and 1/100th the [[clock frequency]] of the [[smartphone]].|alt=Large early portable computer next to a modern smartphone]]

Microprocessor architects report that since around 2010, semiconductor advancement has slowed industry-wide below the pace predicted by Moore's law.<ref name="Turing Award Lecture 2018"/> [[Brian Krzanich]], the former CEO of Intel, cited Moore's 1975 revision as a precedent for the current deceleration, which results from technical challenges and is "a natural part of the history of Moore's law".<ref name="Bradshaw"/><ref name="Waters"/><ref name="Niccolai"/> The rate of improvement in physical dimensions known as Dennard scaling also ended in the mid-2000s. As a result, much of the semiconductor industry has shifted its focus to the needs of major computing applications rather than semiconductor scaling.<ref name=Disco1998/><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Conte |first1=Thomas M. |last2=Track |first2=Elie |last3=DeBenedictis |first3=Erik |date=December 2015 |title=Rebooting Computing: New Strategies for Technology Scaling |journal=Computer |volume=48 |issue=12 |pages=10–13 |doi=10.1109/MC.2015.363 |s2cid=43750026 |quote=Year-over-year exponential computer performance scaling has ended. Complicating this is the coming disruption of the "technology escalator" underlying the industry: Moore's law.}}</ref><ref name="Turing Award Lecture 2018"/> Nevertheless, as of 2019, leading semiconductor manufacturers [[TSMC]] and [[Samsung Electronics]] claimed to keep pace with Moore's law<ref name="TSMC 2019Oct" /><ref name="Samsung 5nm in 2020" /><ref>{{cite web|title=Moore's Law is not Dead|url=https://www.tsmc.com/english/newsEvents/blog_article_20190814.htm|last1=Cheng|first1=Godfrey|date=14 August 2019|website=TSMC Blog|publisher=[[TSMC]]|access-date=18 August 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Moore's Law is Alive and Well – Charts show it may be dying at Intel, but others are picking up the slack|url=https://medium.com/predict/moores-law-is-alive-and-well-adc010ea7a63|last1=Martin|first1=Eric|date=4 June 2019|website=[[Medium (website)|Medium]]|access-date=19 July 2019|archive-date=25 August 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190825131253/https://medium.com/predict/moores-law-is-alive-and-well-adc010ea7a63|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|date=24 June 2019|title=5nm Vs. 3nm|work=Semiconductor Engineering|url=https://semiengineering.com/5nm-vs-3nm/|access-date=19 July 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|last1=Lilly|first1=Paul|date=17 July 2019|title=Intel says it was too aggressive pursuing 10nm, will have 7nm chips in 2021|work=[[PC Gamer]]|url=https://www.pcgamer.com/intel-says-it-was-too-aggressive-pursuing-10nm-will-have-7nm-chips-in-2021/}}</ref> with [[10 nm process|10]], [[7 nm process|7]], and [[5 nm process|5&nbsp;nm]] nodes in mass production.<ref name="TSMC 2019Oct" >{{cite web|url=https://www.anandtech.com/show/15016/tsmc-5nm-on-track-for-q2-2020-hvm-will-ramp-faster-than-7nm |title= TSMC: 5nm on Track for Q2 2020 HVM, Will Ramp Faster Than 7nm |last= Shilov|first= Anton|website= www.anandtech.com|date= October 23, 2019 |access-date=December 1, 2019}}</ref><ref name="Samsung 5nm in 2020" >{{cite web|url= https://www.anandtech.com/show/14695/samsungs-aggressive-euv-plans-6nm-production-in-h2-5nm-4nm-on-track |title= Home>Semiconductors Samsung's Aggressive EUV Plans: 6nm Production in H2, 5nm & 4nm On Track |last= Shilov|first= Anton|publisher= www.anandtech.com|date=  July 31, 2019 |access-date= December 1, 2019}}</ref><ref name="anandtech-samsung">{{cite web|url=https://www.anandtech.com/show/14231/samsung-completes-development-of-5-nm-euv-process-technology|title=Samsung Completes Development of 5nm EUV Process Technology|last=Shilov|first=Anton|website=anandtech.com|access-date=2019-05-31}}</ref><ref name="tsmc">{{citation | url = https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?action=detail&language=E&newsid=THPGWQTHTH | title = TSMC and OIP Ecosystem Partners Deliver Industry's First Complete Design Infrastructure for 5nm Process Technology | date = 3 April 2019 | type = press release | publisher = TSMC | access-date = 19 July 2019 | archive-date = 14 May 2020 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20200514031427/https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?action=detail&language=E&newsid=THPGWQTHTH | url-status = dead }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last=Cutress |first=Dr. Ian |title='Better Yield on 5nm than 7nm': TSMC Update on Defect Rates for N5 |url=https://www.anandtech.com/show/16028/better-yield-on-5nm-than-7nm-tsmc-update-on-defect-rates-for-n5 |access-date=2023-03-27 |website=www.anandtech.com}}</ref>

=== Moore's second law ===
{{Further|Moore's second law}}

As the cost of computer power to the consumer falls, the cost for producers to fulfill Moore's law follows an opposite trend: R&D, manufacturing, and test costs have increased steadily with each new generation of chips. The cost of the tools, principally [[extreme ultraviolet lithography]] (EUVL), used to manufacture chips doubles every 4 years.<ref>{{cite report |url=https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working_papers/id_058_the_health_and_competitiveness_of_the_sme_industry_final_070219checked.pdf |title=The Health and Competitiveness of the U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Industry |author=VerWey |first=John |date=July 2019 |publisher=U.S. International Trade Commission |page=17 |docket= |quote=The costs required to fabricate chips have increased in a predictable manner, operating under what is referred to Moore's Second Law or "Rock's Law", which says the cost of semiconductor tools doubles every four years. |access-date=30 April 2024}}</ref> Rising manufacturing costs are an important consideration for the sustaining of Moore's law.<ref>{{cite magazine| first1 = Sumner | last1 = Lemon | first2 = Tom | last2 = Krazit |url=http://www.infoworld.com/article/2669732/computer-hardware/with-chips--moore-s-law-is-not-the-problem.html |title=With chips, Moore's Law is not the problem |magazine=Infoworld |date=2005-04-19 |access-date=2011-08-22}}</ref> This led to the formulation of [[Moore's second law]], also called Rock's law (named after [[Arthur Rock]]), which is that the [[capital cost]] of a [[semiconductor fabrication plant]] also increases exponentially over time.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.edavision.com/200111/feature.pdf |publisher=EDA Vision |title=Does Moore's Law Still Hold Up? |first=Jeff |last=Dorsch |access-date=2011-08-22 |archive-date=2006-05-06 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060506114410/http://www.edavision.com/200111/feature.pdf |url-status=usurped }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://research.microsoft.com/~gray/Moore_Law.html |title=The Origin, Nature, and Implications of 'Moore's Law' | first = Bob | last = Schaller |publisher=Research.microsoft.com |date=1996-09-26 |access-date=2011-08-22}}</ref>