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==Astrometrics== <!-- Notes on methodology --> The easiest way to determine stellar distance to the Sun for objects at these distances is [[parallax]], which measures how much stars appear to move against background objects over the course of Earth's orbit around the Sun. As a [[parsec]] (parallax-second) is defined by the distance of an object that would appear to move exactly one [[second of arc]] against background objects, stars less than 5 parsecs away will have measured parallaxes of over 0.2 arcseconds, or 200 milliarcseconds. Determining past and future positions relies on accurate [[astrometric]] measurements of their parallax and total [[proper motion]]s (how far they move across the sky due to their actual velocity relative to the Sun), along with [[spectroscopic]]ally determined [[radial velocities]] (their speed directly towards or away from us, which combined with proper motion defines their true movement through the sky relative to the Sun). Both of these measurements are subject to increasing and significant errors over very long time spans, especially over the several thousand-year time spans it takes for stars to noticeably move relative to each other.<ref name="Matthews1994">{{cite journal |title=The Close Approach of Stars in the Solar Neighborhood |last1=Matthews |first1=R. A. |year=1994 |journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society |volume=35 |page=1 |bibcode=1994QJRAS..35....1M}}</ref> <!-- Past/Future distances (second table) --> Based on results from the [[Gaia (spacecraft)|Gaia]] telescope's second data release from April 2018, an estimated 694 stars will approach the Solar System to less than 5 [[parsec]]s in the next 15 million years. Of these, 26 have a good probability to come within {{convert|1.0|pc|ly|abbr=off|sigfig=2}} and another 7 within {{convert|0.5|pc|ly|abbr=off|sigfig=2}}.<ref name="Bailer2018">{{Cite journal|last1=Bailer-Jones|first1=C. A. L. |last2=Rybizki|first2=J. |last3=Andrae|first3=R. |last4=Fouesnea|first4=M. |title=New stellar encounters discovered in the second Gaia data release |journal=Astronomy & Astrophysics |volume=616 |issue=37 |pages=A37 |arxiv=1805.07581 |doi=10.1051/0004-6361/201833456 |year=2018 |bibcode=2018A&A...616A..37B |s2cid=56269929 }}</ref> This number is likely much higher, due to the sheer number of stars needed to be surveyed; a star approaching the Solar System 10 million years ago, moving at a typical Sun-relative 20β200 kilometers per second, would be 600β6,000 light-years from the Sun at present day, with millions of stars closer to the Sun. The closest encounter to the Sun so far predicted is the low-mass orange dwarf star [[Gliese 710]] / HIP 89825 with roughly 60% the mass of the Sun.<ref name="Hall2018">{{cite web|title=Known Close Stellar Encounters Surge in Number |author= Hall, Shannon |publisher=Sky and Telescope |date=28 May 2018 |url=http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/close-stellar-encounters-surge/ |access-date=2 June 2018}}</ref> It is currently predicted to pass {{val|0.1696|0.0065|u=ly}} ({{val|10635|500}} [[Astronomical unit|au]]) from the Sun in {{val|1.290|0.04}} million years from the present, close enough to significantly disturb the Solar System's [[Oort cloud]].<ref name="resultsGaiaDR3">{{cite journal |last1=de la Fuente Marcos |first1=RaΓΊl |last2=de la Fuente Marcos |first2=Carlos |title=An Update on the Future Flyby of Gliese 710 to the Solar System Using Gaia DR3: Flyby Parameters Reproduced, Uncertainties Reduced |journal=[[Research Notes of the AAS]] |volume= 6 |issue= 6 |pages= 136 |year = 2022 |arxiv= |bibcode=2022RNAAS...6..136D |doi= 10.3847/2515-5172/ac7b95|doi-access=free }}</ref> [[File:Stars-within-11-light-years2.webm|thumb|upright=1.3|Stars within {{nowrap|11 ly}}.]] [[File:12lightyears.gif|thumb|upright=1.3|Stars and star systems within {{nowrap|12.5 ly}}.]]
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