Editing Kondratiev wave (section)

== History of concept ==
The Soviet economist [[Nikolai Kondratiev]] (also written Kondratieff or Kondratyev) was the first to bring these observations to international attention in his book ''The Long Waves in Economic Life'' (1926) alongside other works written in the same decade.<ref name="BarnettBio">Vincent Barnett, [http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3404100667.html Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev], ''Encyclopedia of Russian History'', 2004, at [[Encyclopedia.com]].</ref><ref name="BuystBio">Erik Buyst, [https://web.archive.org/web/20130523005235/http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G2-3447000528.html Kondratiev, Nikolai (1892–1938)], ''Encyclopedia of Modern Europe: Europe Since 1914: Encyclopedia of the Age of War and Reconstruction'', [[Gale (publisher)|Gale Publishing]], January 1, 2006.</ref> In 1939, [[Joseph Schumpeter]] suggested naming the cycles "Kondratieff waves" in his honor. The underlying idea is closely linked to [[organic composition of capital]].<ref>{{Cite web |title=Kondratieff Wave - CMT Association |url=https://cmtassociation.org/kb/kondratieff-wave/ |access-date=2024-02-12 |language=en-US}}</ref>

Two Dutch economists, [[Jacob van Gelderen]] and [[Salomon de Wolff]], had previously argued for the existence of 50- to 60-year cycles in 1913 and 1924, respectively.

Since the inception of the theory, various studies have expanded the range of possible cycles, finding longer or shorter cycles in the data. The [[Marxist]] scholar [[Ernest Mandel]] revived interest in long-wave theory with his 1964 essay predicting the end of the [[Post–World War II economic expansion|long boom]] after five years and in his [[Alfred Marshall]] lectures in 1979. However, in Mandel's theory long waves are the result of the normal [[business cycle]] and noneconomic factors, such as wars.<ref>{{cite book |title=Long waves of capitalist development: the Marxist interpretation |last=Mandel |first=Ernest |year=1995 |edition=2nd |publisher=Verso |location=New York |isbn=978-1-85984-037-5 |pages=16–21}}</ref>

In 1996, George Modelski and  William R. Thompson published a book documenting K-Waves dating back to 930 AD in China.<ref>{{cite book|last1=Thompson|first1=William|title=Leading sectors and world powers: the coevolution of global politics and economics|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=a-mMKb5fPKEC&q=Rhythms+in+Politics+and+Economics+-+Thompson&pg=PR13|isbn=9781570030543|year=1996|publisher=Univ of South Carolina Press }}</ref> Separately, Michael Snyder wrote: "economic cycle theories have enabled some analysts to correctly predict the timing of recessions, stock market peaks and stock market crashes over the past couple of decades".<ref>{{cite web|last1=Snyder|first1=Michael|title=If Economic Cycle Theorists Are Correct, 2015 To 2020 Will Be Pure Hell For The United States|url=http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/if-economic-cycle-theorists-are-correct-2015-to-2020-will-be-pure-hell-for-the-united-states|website=The Economiccollapseblog.com|access-date=December 1, 2016|date=2014-05-12}}</ref>

The historian [[Eric Hobsbawm]] also wrote of the theory: "That good predictions have proved possible on the basis of Kondratiev Long Waves—this is not very common in economics—has convinced many historians and even some economists that there is something in them, even if we don't know what".<ref name="Hobsbawm99">Hobsbawm (1999), pp. 87f.</ref>

US economist [[Anwar Shaikh (economist)|Anwar Shaikh]] analyses the movement of the general price level - prices expressed in gold - in the US and the UK since 1890 and identifies three long cycles with troughs ca. in 1895, 1939 and 1982. With this model 2018 was another trough between the third and a possible future fourth cycle.<ref>[[Anwar Shaikh (economist)|Anwar Shaikh]] 2016: ''Capitalism''. Oxford University Press. P. 749.</ref>