Editing Encyclopedia:Size of Wikipedia (section)

==Wikipedia growth of article count==
{{for|more details and discussion of other models|Wikipedia:Modelling Wikipedia's growth}}

Before 2012, Wikipedia's growth approximately followed a Gompertz growth model. This model was created in June 2010, and it is determined by the [[Gompertz function]], 
:<math>y(t)=ae^{be^{ct}}</math>,

with parameters
: ''a'' = 4,378,449
: ''b'' = −15.42677
: ''c'' = −0.384124
: ''t'' is the time in years since 2000/1/1 (so 2010/1/1 is ''t'' = 10.00) 

and where ''e'' is the constant 2.71828... ([[e (mathematical constant)|Euler's number]]).
{{Wikipedia article graph}}
{{Wikipedia editor graph}}

Some characteristics of this model are:
{{flowlist}}
* a [[inflection point|pivot point]] at which the growth is at its peak. For ''en.wikipedia.org'' ([[English Wikipedia]]), this might have been in August 2006 with 60,000 new articles per month.
* a maximum to the number of articles of about 4.4 million (as determined by parameter ''a'' of the model). It should be noted that there will always be new events, people, organizations, species, objects, works, locations, concepts, and receptions to describe in the future, which this model does not account for, and the actual number of English Wikipedia articles has already exceeded this maximum number of Wikipedia articles in December 2013.
{{endflowlist}}

This model is related to the ''quantity'' (number of articles). The ''quality'' might still increase independently depending on the individual article. The model does not account for article size.

===Graphs of size and growth rate===
In this section, the first graph shows the historical and expected total number of articles; in the second graph, the monthly growth rate has slowed since late 2006 (series trending downward).

[[Wikipedia:Modelling Wikipedia's growth#Two-phase exponential model|Detailed analysis of the data]] shows that from 2006 to 2009 the article growth rate followed a six-monthly cycle with faster growth in February and August than in May and November. This cycle does not appear in the growth-rate graph here because the values shown in the graph have been averaged over six months.

The final graph in this section shows content page growth (i.e. including articles and other pages) to May 2019: note the near-linear growth trend since 2018.

Note the small drop in article count from late August 2022 to early September 2022.

=== Annual growth rate for the English Wikipedia ===
{|class="wikitable" style="text-align: center; line-height:1.5em;"
|-
! Date||Article count||Increase during&nbsp;<br/>preceding year||% increase during<br/>preceding year||Doubling time (in years<br/>and days<br>rounded up)||Average increase<br>per day during<br>preceding year&nbsp;
|-
| 2002-01-01 || 19,700 || 19,700 || — || — || 54
|-
| 2003-01-01 || 96,500 || 76,800 || 390% || 160 days || 210
|-
| 2004-01-01 || 188,800 || 92,300 || 96% || 377 days <!-- Calculated using 366 days, as it was a leap year --> || 253
|-
| 2005-01-01 || 438,500 || 249,700 || 132% || 301 days || 682 <!-- Divided by 366, as it was a leap year -->
|-
| 2006-01-01 || 895,000 || 456,500 || 104% || 355 days || 1251
|-
| 2007-01-01 || 1,560,000 || 665,000 || 74% || 342 days || 1822
|-
| 2008-01-01 || 2,153,000 || 593,000 || 38% || 1 year, 302 days <!-- Calculated using 365.5 days, as it includes one non-leap year and one leap year --> || 1625
|-
| 2009-01-01 || 2,679,000 || 526,000 || 24% || 2 years, 326 days || 1437 <!-- Divided by 366, as it was a leap year -->
|-
| 2010-01-01 || 3,144,000 || 465,000 || 17% || 4 years, 29 days <!-- Calculated using 365.25 days, as it includes three non-leap years and one leap year --> || 1274
|-
| 2011-01-01 || 3,518,000 || 374,000 || 12% || 5 years, 284 days <!-- Calculated using 365.4 days, as it includes three non-leap years and two leap years --> || 1025
|-
| 2012-01-01 || 3,835,000 || 317,000 || 9% || 7 years, 257 days <!-- Calculated using 365 2/7 days, as it includes five non-leap years and two leap years --> || 868
|-
| 2013-01-01 || 4,133,000 || 298,000 || 8% || 8 years, 243 days <!-- Calculated using 365.25 days, as it includes six non-leap years and two leap years --> || 814 <!-- Divided by 366, as it was a leap year -->
|-
| 2014-01-01 || 4,413,000 || 280,000 || 7% || 9 years, 330 days <!-- Calculated using 365 2/9 days, as it includes seven non-leap years and two leap years --> || 767
|-
| 2015-01-01 || 4,682,000 || 269,000 || 6% || 11 years, 202 days <!-- Calculated using 365 3/11 days, as it includes eight non-leap years and three leap years --> || 736
|-
| 2016-01-01 || 5,045,000 || 363,000 || 8% || 8 years, 243 days <!-- Calculated using 365.25 days, as it includes six non-leap years and two leap years --> || 995
|-
| 2017-01-01 || 5,321,200 || 276,200 || 7% || 9 years, 330 days <!-- Calculated using 365 2/9 days, as it includes seven non-leap years and two leap years --> || 755 <!-- Divided by 366, as it was a leap year -->
|-
| 2018-01-01 || 5,541,900 || 220,700 || 4.5% || 15 years, 148 days <!--Calculated using 365 4/15 days, as it includes eleven non-leap years and four leap years --> || 605
|-
| 2019-01-01 || 5,773,600 || 231,700 || 4.2% || 16 years, 310 days <!--Calculated using 365.25 days, as it includes twelve non-leap years and four leap years --> || 635
|-
| 2020-01-01 || 5,989,400 || 215,800 || 3.8% || 20 years, 11 days <!--Calculated using 365.25 days, as it includes fifteen non-leap years and five leap years --> || 591
|-
| 2021-01-01 || 6,219,700 || 230,300 || 3.8% || 20 years <!--Calculated using 365.25 days, as it includes fifteen non-leap years and five leap years --> || 629 <!-- Divided by 366, as it was a leap year -->
|-
| 2022-01-01 || 6,431,400 || 211,700 || 3.4% || 21 years, 0 days || 580
|-
| 2023-01-01 || 6,595,468 || 164,068 || 2.6% || 27 years, 2 days || 450
|-
| 2024-01-01 || 6,764,335 || 168,867 || 2.6% || 27 years, 2 days || 463
|-
| 2025-01-01 || 6,933,296 || 168,961 || 2.6% || 27 years, 2 days || 462
|-
|
|-
|{{CURRENTYEAR}}-{{CURRENTMONTH}}-{{CURRENTDAY2}}
||{{NUMBEROFARTICLES}}
||''&nbsp;&nbsp;{{formatnum:{{#expr:(({{NUMBEROFARTICLES:R}}-6933296) * 365) / (({{#time:U|now}} - {{#time:U|2024-01-01}}) / 3600 / 24)round 0}}}}''<sup>[a]</sup>
||''{{formatnum:{{#expr:((({{NUMBEROFARTICLES:R}} - 6933296) / 6933296) * 365) / (({{#time:U|now}} - {{#time:U|2024-01-01}}) / 3600 / 24) * 100 round 1}}}}%''<sup>[a]</sup>
||
||''{{#expr:({{NUMBEROFARTICLES:R}} - 6933296) / (({{#time:U|now}} - {{#time:U|2024-01-01}}) / 3600 / 24) round 0}}''<sup>[a]</sup>
|-
|colspan="6" align=left|
::<sup>[a]</sup>Estimate based on year so far
|}

At this rate, there are '''{{#expr:({{#expr:ceil({{NUMBEROFARTICLES:R}}/1000000)*1000000}}-{{NUMBEROFARTICLES:R}})/(({{NUMBEROFARTICLES:R}}-{{#expr:floor({{NUMBEROFARTICLES:R}}/1000000)*1000000}})/(({{#time:U|now}}-{{#time:U|2020-01-23}})/3600/24))round 0}} days''' until the English Wikipedia reaches {{#expr:ceil({{NUMBEROFARTICLES:R}}/1000000)}} million articles.