Editing Economy of Ukraine (section)

==History==
===Before 1917===
Geography has long influenced the economy of the Ukrainian lands. Rich fertile soils (such as [[chernozem]] areas) made the area a "[[breadbasket]]": for [[ancient Greece]]<ref>
{{cite book
 | last1 = Kaplan
 | first1 = Temma
 | title = Democracy: A World History
 | url = https://books.google.com/books?id=-LxPBQAAQBAJ
 | series = New Oxford World History
 | location = New York
 | publisher = Oxford University Press
 | date = 2014
 | access-date = 9 November 2018
 | isbn = 9780199929962
 | quote = Greece consisted of discrete enclaves on which agriculture was difficult and residents turned to the sea for their livelihood. [...] Athens could not have survived without grain from Ukraine, one reason that Athens feared Persian movements toward the Dardanelles, the Bosporus, and the Black Sea, and maybe the main reason Athens extended so many rights of participatory democracy to lower-class male citizens who served in its navy.
}}
</ref> as well as for early [[modern Europe]].<ref>
{{cite book
 | last1 = Havrylyshyn
 | first1 = Oleh
 | chapter = Nature of the Economy before Independence
 | title = The Political Economy of Independent Ukraine: Slow Starts, False Starts, and a Last Chance?
 | url = https://books.google.com/books?id=QY_LDQAAQBAJ
 | series = Studies in Economic Transition
 | location = London
 | publisher = Springer
 | date = 2016
 | page = 18
 | isbn = 9781137576903
 | access-date = 9 November 2018
 | quote = From the mid-1500s one saw the second historical period of European orientation as 'increasing demand for grain on the European markets [led to] Ukraine earning its reputation as the breadbasket of Europe'.
| author1-link = :uk:Олег Гаврилишин
 }}
</ref> The maintenance of trade corridors – the [[route from the Varangians to the Greeks]] and [[Turkish Straits#Straits Question|access through the Straits]] to the Mediterranean world – became important. Mineral resources encouraged industrialisation – notably in the [[Donbas]] – from the 19th century onwards.<ref>
{{cite book
 | last1 = Havrylyshyn
 | first1 = Oleh
 | chapter = Nature of the Economy before Independence
 | title = The Political Economy of Independent Ukraine: Slow Starts, False Starts, and a Last Chance?
 | url = https://books.google.com/books?id=QY_LDQAAQBAJ
 | series = Studies in Economic Transition
 | location = London
 | publisher = Springer
 | date = 2016
 | page = 24
 | isbn = 9781137576903
 | access-date = 9 November 2018
 | quote = In the 1860s and 1870s a major shift in economic structure began as czarist policy turned to promote modern industrialization [...]. [...] A huge government-supported program of railroad building began, followed by policies to attract foreign investors to develop metallurgy in the coal- and iron-rich areas of the South-East.
}}
</ref>

The lack of secure borders meant repeated interruptions in economic development. [[Eurasian nomads|Steppe nomads]] and other conquerors – [[Cumans]], [[Mongol invasion of Kievan Rus'|Mongols]], [[Crimean Tatars|Tatars]] for example, sometimes saw plundering as more important than fostering economic development. In the 16th to 18th centuries, the wastelands of the [[Wild Fields]] left much of Ukraine as an area of tentatively militarised outposts, prior to tsarist Russia's extension of its power into the region in the 17th and 18th centuries.

===Soviet period: 1917 to 1991===
{{for|the history of Ukraine's economy in Soviet times|Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic#Economy}}

===1991 to 2000===
On 24 August 1991, Ukraine [[Declaration of Independence of Ukraine|established its independence]] from the [[Soviet Union]].<ref>{{cite web|url= http://gska2.rada.gov.ua:7777/site/postanova_eng/Rres_Declaration_Independence_rev12.htm|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20070930203430/http://gska2.rada.gov.ua:7777/site/postanova_eng/Rres_Declaration_Independence_rev12.htm|archive-date=30 September 2007|title= Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Resolution On Declaration of Independence of Ukraine|access-date= 12 September 2007|date= 24 August 1991|work= [[Verkhovna Rada| Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine]]}}</ref> The new state's economy suffered huge output declines and soaring inflation in the following years.<ref name="TE Mar 5th 2014">{{cite web|url=https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/03/ukraine-and-russia|title=Why is Ukraine's economy in such a mess?|publisher=[[The Economist]]|date=5 Mar 2014}}</ref> Ukraine saw [[hyperinflation]] in the early 1990s because of a lack of access to financial markets and massive monetary expansion to finance government spending, while output declined sharply this was catastrophic for the economy because it undid decades of hard-fought economic progress and people became poorer.<ref name="TE Mar 5th 2014"/> Huge output declines and soaring inflation was at the time common to most [[Post-Soviet states|former Soviet republics]], but Ukraine was among the hardest hit by these problems.<ref name="TE Mar 5th 2014"/>

In response to hyperinflation the [[National Bank of Ukraine]] replaced the national currency, the [[Ukrainian karbovanets|karbovanets]], with the [[Ukrainian hryvnia|hryvnia]] in September 1996 and pledged to keep it stable in relation to the U.S. dollar.<ref name="TE Mar 5th 2014"/><ref>President's Decree dated 26 August 1996, published on 29 August</ref> The currency remained unstable through the late 1990s, particularly during the [[1998 Russian financial crisis]].<ref name="TE Mar 5th 2014"/>

Deep recession during the 1990s led to a relatively high [[Poverty|poverty rate]], but beginning in 2001, seven straight years of economic growth, raised the living standard for most citizens. A [[World Bank]] report in 2007 noted that: "Ukraine recorded one of the sharpest declines in poverty of any transition economy in recent years. The poverty rate, measured against an absolute poverty line, fell from a high of 32% in 2001 to 8% in 2005."<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://web.worldbank.org/archive/website01022A/WEB/0__CON-3.HTM|title=Economic Analysis and Evaluation – Publications & Reports|website=web.worldbank.org}}</ref> The [[United Nations|UN]] noted that Ukraine had overcome absolute poverty, and that there was only relative poverty in 2009.<ref name="UN">{{cite web|url=http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2009_EN_Complete.pdf|title=Human Development Report 2009|date=January 2009 |publisher=HDR 2009 Statistical Tables}}</ref>

===2000 to 2014===
{{main| 2008–09 Ukrainian financial crisis}}
Ukraine stabilised by the early 2000s.<ref name="TE Mar 5th 2014"/> The year 2000 saw the first year of economic growth since Ukraine's independence.<ref name="UE The Underachiever">{{cite web|url=http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/03/09/underachiever-ukraine-s-economy-since-1991|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121004084742/http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/03/09/underachiever-ukraine-s-economy-since-1991|url-status=dead|archive-date=4 October 2012|title=The Underachiever: Ukraine's Economy Since 1991|publisher=[[Carnegie Endowment for International Peace]]|date=9 March 2012}}</ref> The economy continued to grow thanks to a 50% growth in exports between 2000 and 2008<ref name="UE The Underachiever"/> – mainly exports from the traditional industries of metals, metallurgy, engineering, chemicals, and food.<ref name="UE The Underachiever"/> Between 2001 and 2008, metals and chemicals prices boomed because of fast international economic growth, while the price of natural gas imported from Russia remained low.<ref name="UE The Underachiever"/>

[[Monetization|Monetisation]] also helped to drive the [[Economic expansion|economic boom]] Ukraine experienced between 2000 and 2008.<ref name="UE The Underachiever"/> Attracted in part by relatively high interest-rates, foreign cash was injected into Ukraine's economy and money supply grew rapidly: from 2001 to 2010 broad, money increased at an annual rate of 35%.<ref name="TE Mar 5th 2014"/> In 2006 and 2007, credit growth averaged 73%.<ref name="TE Mar 5th 2014"/>

An effect of this was that Ukrainian assets began to look like a large [[economic bubble]] and high inflation started to damage Ukraine's export competitiveness.<ref name="TE Mar 5th 2014"/> The ratio of credit to GDP grew extremely fast – from 7% to almost 80% over just several{{quantify|date=November 2018}} years.<ref name="UE The Underachiever"/> From 2000 to 2007, Ukraine's real growth averaged 7.4%.<ref name="UE The Underachiever"/> This growth was driven by domestic demand: orientation toward consumption, other structural change, and financial development.<ref name="UE The Underachiever"/>

Domestic demand grew in constant prices by almost 15% annually.<ref name="UE The Underachiever"/> It was supported by expansionary—[[Procyclical and countercyclical variables|procyclical]]—fiscal policy.<ref name="UE The Underachiever"/> Ukraine benefited from very low labour costs, slightly lower tariffs, and high prices of its main export goods, but at the same time faced notably higher non-tariff barriers.<ref name="UE The Underachiever"/> Russia has not charged Ukraine below-world-market prices for natural gas since the end of 2008. This led to various [[Russia–Ukraine gas disputes]].<ref name="UE The Underachiever"/><ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=2zJdAgAAQBAJ&dq=Ukraine+below+world+market+prices+for+natural+gas&pg=PA34|title=Unconventional Gas Reservoirs: Evaluation, Appraisal, and Development|author=M. Rafiqul Islam|publisher=[[Gulf Publishing Company]]|date=7 November 2014|isbn=978-0128003909|page=34}}</ref><ref name="UE The Underachiever B"/><ref>
{{cite news
| title = Ukraine and Russia reach gas deal
| work= [[BBC News]]
| date = 4 January 2006
| url = http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4579648.stm
| access-date = 17 December 2008}}
</ref>

[[2008–2009 Ukrainian financial crisis|Ukraine suffered severely]] in the [[Great Recession|economic crisis of 2008]]. Because of it Ukraine experienced a drought in capital flows.<ref name="TE Mar 5th 2014"/> The hryvnia, which had been pegged at a rate of 5:1 to the U.S. dollar, was devalued to 8:1, and was stabilised at that ratio until the beginning of 2014.<ref name=VhaUSdGF>{{cite web|url=https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-UAH|title=US Dollar ($) ⇨ Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH)]|publisher=[[Google Finance]]}}</ref> In 2008, Ukraine's economy ranked [[List of countries by GDP (nominal)|45th in the world]] according to GDP (nominal), with a total nominal GDP of US$188 billion, and nominal per capita GDP of US$3,900. There was 3% unemployment at the end of 2008. Over the first 9 months of 2009, unemployment averaged 9.4%.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/order/?id=178325|title=Unemployment lower in Ukraine against EU countries|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110716162846/http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/order/?id=178325 |archive-date=16 July 2011 |publisher=[[UKRINFORM]]|date=12 January 2009}}</ref> The final official unemployment rates for 2009 and 2010 were 8.8% and 8.4%,<ref name="CIAFactbook"/> although the [[The World Factbook|CIA World Factbook]] notes a "large number of unregistered or underemployed workers".<ref name="CIAFactbook"/> Ukraine's GDP fell by 15% in 2009.<ref name="TE Mar 5th 2014"/>

The Ukrainian economy recovered in the first quarter of 2010<ref name=UkrEcoQ12010>{{cite web|url=http://www.unian.net/eng/news/news-377569.html|title=Ukraine – Macroeconomic situation – April 2010|publisher=[[UNIAN]]|date=19 May 2010}}</ref> due to the recovery of the world economy and increasing prices for metals.<ref name="UE The Underachiever B">{{cite web|url=http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/04/02/reforming-ukrainian-economy-under-yanukovych-first-two-years|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140403054626/http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/04/02/reforming-ukrainian-economy-under-yanukovych-first-two-years|url-status=dead|archive-date=3 April 2014|title=Reforming the Ukrainian Economy under Yanukovych: The First Two Years|publisher=[[Carnegie Endowment for International Peace]]|date=2 April 2012}}</ref> Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2010 was 4.3%, leading to a per capita [[Purchasing power parity|PPP]] GDP of US$6,700.<ref name="CIAFactbook">{{cite web|url=https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/ukraine/|title=Ukraine Economy – GDP real growth rate.|date=22 December 2024 |publisher=[[CIA World Factbook]]}}</ref> In 2011, Ukrainian politicians estimated that 40% of Ukraine's economy was a [[Black market|shadow economy]].<ref name=shadow1>{{cite web|url=http://www.feg.org.ua/en/news/foundation_press/262.html|script-title=uk:К сожалению, запрашиваемая страница не существует.|trans-title=N. Korolevskaya: Ukraine Needs a Single Anti-Corruption Project|url-status=live<!--as of 23 Sep 2024-->|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303233026/http://www.feg.org.ua/en/news/foundation_press/262.html |archive-date=3 March 2016 |publisher=[[Foundation for Effective Governance]]}}</ref><ref name=shadow2>{{cite web|url=http://www.interfax.com.ua/eng/main/88030/|title=Azarov: Shadow trade accounts for 40% of domestic market|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120609121541/http://www.interfax.com.ua/eng/main/88030/ |archive-date=9 June 2012 |publisher=[[Interfax Ukraine]] |date=7 December 2011}}</ref>

In the summer of 2013, Ukrainian exports to Russia fell substantially due to [[Ukraine–European Union relations#Russian reaction|Russia's stricter customs controls]].<ref name=rsbcdue/>

By October 2013, the Ukrainian economy had become stuck in recession.<ref name=Reuters171013>{{cite web|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emerging-ukraine-debt-idUSBRE99G06F20131017 |title=Big debts and dwindling cash: Ukraine tests creditors' nerves|publisher=[[Reuters]]|date=17 October 2013}}</ref> [[Moody's Investors Service|Moody's]] downgraded Ukraine's credit rating to [[Moody's#Global Credit Research|Caa1]] (poor quality and very high credit risk) in September 2013.<ref name=Reuters171013/><ref name="Moody's Definitions">{{cite web |url= http://www.moodys.com/ratings-process/Ratings-Definitions/002002 |title= Ratings Definitions |year= 2011 |work= moodys.com |publisher= [[Moody's Investors Service]] |access-date= 30 August 2011}}</ref><ref name="IOSCO 03">{{cite web |url= http://www.fsa.go.jp/inter/ios/20030930/05.pdf |title= Report on the Activities of Credit Rating Agencies |date= September 2003 |publisher= The Technical Committee of the [[International Organization of Securities Commissions]] |access-date= 1 December 2011}}</ref> At the time, [[Swap (finance)#Swap market|swap market]]s rated Ukraine's [[Probability of default|default probability]] over the next five years at 50%.<ref name=Reuters171013/> In 2013, Ukraine saw no growth in GDP.<ref name=AJstnste/>

===Post-Euromaidan: 2014 to present===
Due to the loss of Ukraine's largest trading partner, Russia, over the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, and exacerbated by the [[war in Donbas]] which started in April 2014{{#tag:ref|In April 2014 [[2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine|pro-Russian protest]] escalated into the war in Donbas between the [[Government of Ukraine|Ukrainian government]] and the [[Separatism|separatist forces]] of the self-declared [[Donetsk People's Republic]] and [[Luhansk People's Republic]].<ref name=stnstaue>{{cite news|url= https://www.yahoo.com/news/kiev-government-deploy-troops-ukraines-east-232441379.html?ref=gs|title= Ukraine to deploy troops to quash pro-Russian insurgency in the east|work= Yahoo News Canada|date= 14 April 2014|agency= Associated Press|last= Leonard|first= Peter|access-date= 26 October 2014|url-status= dead|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20140414125950/https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-special-forces-sent-eastern-city-retake-buildings-082049113.html|archive-date= 14 April 2014|df= dmy}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url= http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/armed-pro-russian-insurgents-in-luhansk-say-they-are-ready-for-police-raid-343167.html|title= Armed pro-Russian insurgents in Luhansk say they are ready for police raid|work= Kyiv Post|date= 12 April 2014|last= Grytsenko|first= Oksana}}</ref>|group= nb}} Ukraine's economy shrank by 6.8% in 2014.<ref name=stnstaue/> It had been expected to decline by 8%.<ref name="Yahoo"/> A Ukrainian government report stated early in February 2016 that Ukraine's economy had shrunk by 10.4% in 2015.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://uatoday.tv/business/ukraine-s-government-report-economy-down-10-4-in-2015-583213.html|title=Ukraine's Government Report: Economy down 10.4% in 2015|publisher=[[Ukraine Today]]|date=2 February 2016}}</ref> For 2015, the National Bank of Ukraine had expected a further decline of 11.6%, and the World Bank anticipated a 12% shrinkage.<ref name="radiosvoboda.org"/> The World Bank forecast growth of 1% in 2016.<ref name="uatoday.tv">{{cite web|url=http://uatoday.tv/news/world-bank-keeps-its-forecast-for-ukraine-s-economy-growth-at-1-per-cent-569125.html|title=World Bank keeps its forecast for Ukraine's economy growth at 1 per cent|publisher=[[Ukraine Today]]|date=11 January 2016}}</ref>

Early in February 2014, the National Bank of Ukraine changed the hryvnia into a fluctuating/floating currency in an attempt to meet [[International Monetary Fund|IMF]] requirements and to try to enforce a stable price for the currency in the [[Foreign exchange market|Forex market]].<ref>{{cite news|url= http://www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=5454079&cat_id=55838|script-title= uk:7 лютого 2014 року Національний банк України вводить в обіг пам'ятну монету 'Визволення Нікополя від фашистських загарбників'|trans-title= 7 February 2014 the National Bank of Ukraine will introduce a commemorative coin 'Liberation of Nikopol from fascist invaders' into circulation|language= uk|date= 7 February 2014|url-status= dead|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20140221230812/http://www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=5454079&cat_id=55838|archive-date= 21 February 2014|df= dmy|access-date= 5 February 2016}}</ref> In 2014 and 2015, the hryvnia lost about 70% of its value against the U.S. dollar.<ref name=VhaUSdGF/><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35483171|title=Ukraine teeters a few steps from chaos|publisher=[[BBC News]]|date=5 February 2016}}</ref>

The IMF agreed to a [[Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund|four-year loan programme]] worth about $17.5&nbsp;billion in eight tranches over 2015 and 2016, subject to conditions which involved economic reforms.<ref name="ut-20160513">{{cite news |url= http://uatoday.tv/politics/ukraine-may-get-1-7-bln-from-imf-by-mid-year-moody-s-647646.html |title= Ukraine may get USD 1.7 bln from IMF by mid-year – Moody's |publisher= Ukraine Today |date= 13 May 2016 |access-date= 20 May 2016}}</ref> However, due to lack of progress on reforms, only two tranches worth $6.7 billion were paid in 2015. A third tranche of $1.7 billion was provisionally scheduled in June 2016 subject to the bringing into law of 19 further reform measures.<ref name="kp-20160514">{{cite news |url= https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/what-ukraine-must-do-to-get-another-17-413635.html |title= What Ukraine must do to get another $1.7 billion IMF loan |newspaper= Kyiv Post |date= 14 May 2016 |access-date= 20 May 2016}}</ref><ref name="reuters-20160518">{{cite news |url= http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-imf-idUKKCN0Y92JB |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20160519120357/http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-imf-idUKKCN0Y92JB |url-status= dead |archive-date= 19 May 2016 |title= Ukraine, IMF agree terms to resume financial support – IMF |author= Alessandra Prentice |work= Reuters |date= 18 May 2016 |access-date= 20 May 2016}}</ref> Some western analysts believed that large foreign loans were not encouraging reform, but enabling the corrupt extraction of funds out of the country.<ref name="wp-20160505">{{cite news |url= https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/05/05/how-western-aid-enables-graft-addiction-in-ukraine/ |title= How Western aid enables graft addiction in Ukraine |author= Neil A. Abrams, [[M. Steven Fish]] |newspaper= Washington Post |date= 5 May 2016 |access-date= 20 May 2016}}</ref>

Since December 2015, Ukraine has refused to pay and hence ''[[de facto]]'' defaults on a $3 billion debt payment to Russia that formed part of a [[17 December 2013 Russian–Ukrainian action plan|December 2013 Ukrainian–Russian action plan]].<ref name=PaymentMoratorium>{{cite news|first= Nataliya|last= Vasileva|url= https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-says-wont-repay-russian-debt-due-weekend-112007020.html?ref=gs|title= Ukraine won't repay $3 billion Russian debt due this weekend|agency= [[AP News]]|location= Moscow|date= 18 December 2015|access-date= 4 February 2016|url-status= live|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20160311162705/http://bigstory.ap.org/article/3266e1c4ee134eebacb860fb07b1ad06/ukraine-says-it-wont-repay-russian-debt-due-weekend|archive-date= 11 March 2016|df= dmy}}</ref>

The turnover of retail trade in Ukraine in 2014 shrank by 8.6% (from 2013) and shrank by 20.7% in 2015 (from 2014).<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.unian.info/economics/1241782-ukraine-sees-207-decline-in-retail-trade-in-2015.html|title=Ukraine sees 20.7% decline in retail trade in 2015|publisher=[[UNIAN]]|date=20 January 2016}}</ref> Ukraine saw a 30.9% decline in exports in 2015,<ref name="RUTtwpsp"/> mainly because of a sharp decline in production output in [[Donetsk Oblast]] and in [[Luhansk Oblast]] (the two regions of the Donbas).<ref name="RUTtwpsp"/> These two regions were responsible for 40.6% of the total export-decline rate.<ref name="RUTtwpsp"/> Before the war they had been two of the more industrial [[oblasts of Ukraine]].<ref name=AJstnste/>

According to the [[Ministry of Economy (Ukraine)|Ministry of Economic Development and Trade]], Ukraine had a surplus in its balance of payments in January–November 2015 of $566&nbsp;million and has had a trade deficit of $11.046 billion during the same period in 2014.<ref name="RUTtwpsp"/> On 31 December 2015, Ukraine's public debt stood at 79% of its GDP.<ref name="pdu2015"/> It had shrunk $4.324 billion in 2015 to end up at $65.488 billion.<ref name="pdu2015"/> But calculated in hryvnia, the debt had grown by 42.78%.<ref name="pdu2015">{{Cite web|url=https://www.unian.info/economics/1263757-ukraines-public-debt-at-79-of-gdp-by-end-of-2015-finance-ministry.html|title=Ukraine's public debt at 79% of GDP by end of 2015 – Finance Ministry|website=www.unian.info|date=12 February 2016 }}</ref> In 2015, the [[Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine]] rated 20–25% of Ukrainian households as poor.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ua.undp.org/content/ukraine/en/home/presscenter/pressreleases/2015/09/22/how-to-overcome-poverty-in-ukraine.html|title=How to overcome poverty in Ukraine|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181109153725/http://www.ua.undp.org/content/ukraine/en/home/presscenter/pressreleases/2015/09/22/how-to-overcome-poverty-in-ukraine.html |archive-date=9 November 2018 |publisher=[[UNDP]]|access-date=22 September 2015}}</ref>

$2.526 billion entered the Ukrainian economy via remittances in 2015, 34.9% less than in 2014.<ref name=tfU4316/> $431 million was sent from Ukraine to elsewhere using remittances.<ref name=tfU4316>{{cite web|url=http://www.unian.info/economics/1282938-money-flow-from-ukrainian-migrant-workers-halves-to-25-bln.html|title=Money flow from Ukrainian migrant workers halves to $2.5 bln|publisher=[[UNIAN]] |date=4 March 2016}}</ref> In January 2016, [[Bloomberg L.P.|Bloomberg]] rated Ukraine's economy as the 41st most innovative in the world,<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/these-are-the-world-s-most-innovative-economies|title=These Are the World's Most Innovative Economies|work=Bloomberg |date=19 January 2016 |publisher=Bloomberg Business}}</ref> down from 33rd in January 2015.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst//most-innovative-countries|title=Most Innovative: Countries|work=Bloomberg |publisher=Bloomberg Business}}</ref>

In May 2016, the IMF mission chief for Ukraine, Ron van Rood, stated that [[Corruption in Ukraine|reduction of corruption]] was a key test for continued international support.<ref name="reuters-20160518"/> In February 2016, historian [[Andrew Wilson (historian)|Andrew Wilson]] assessed progress in reducing corruption as poor as of 2016.<ref name="nw-20160214">{{cite news |url= http://europe.newsweek.com/corruption-stalling-ukraine-optimistic-revolution-425477 |title= Corruption was Stalling Ukraine's Optimistic Revolution |author= Andrew Wilson |newspaper= Newsweek |date= 14 February 2016 |access-date= 17 February 2016}}</ref> [[Aivaras Abromavičius]], Ukraine's then-Minister of Economy and Trade, resigned in February 2016, citing ingrained corruption.<ref name="guardian-20160204">{{cite news |url= https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/04/economic-minister-resignation-ukraine-crisis-aivaras-abromavicius |title= Economic minister's resignation plunges Ukraine into new crisis |author= Alec Luhn |newspaper= The Guardian |date= 4 February 2016 |access-date= 16 March 2016}}</ref> In October of the same year, a survey of potential foreign investors conducted by Dragon Capital identified corruption and lack of trust in the judiciary as the largest obstacles to investment.<ref name="euronews-20161011">{{cite news |url= http://www.euronews.com/2016/10/11/ukraine-sets-sights-on-foreign-investment |title= Ukraine sets sights on foreign investment |newspaper= euronews |date= 11 October 2016 |access-date= 11 October 2016}}</ref>

Late in July 2016, the [[State Statistics Service of Ukraine]] reported that, compared with June 2015, [[real wages]] had increased by 17.3%.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.unian.info/economics/1442903-real-wages-in-ukraine-grow-by-72-in-june.html|title=Real wages in Ukraine grow by 7.2% in June|website=www.unian.info|date=29 July 2016 }}</ref> Simultaneously the National Bank of Ukraine reported a $406 million surplus in Ukraine's January–June 2016 [[balance of payments]] against a deficit of $1.3 billion in the same period in 2015.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.unian.info/economics/1443222-ukraine-posts-406-mln-surplus-in-balance-of-payments-in-h1.html|title=Ukraine posts $406 mln surplus in balance of payments in H1|website=www.unian.info|date=29 July 2016 }}</ref> According to Ukraine's State Statistics Service, inflation in 2016 came down to 13.9%; while it had stood at 43.3% in 2015 and at 24.9% in 2014.<ref name=iSSS6117>{{cite web|url=http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/395236.html |title=State Statistics Service: Inflation in Ukraine in 2016 slows down to 12.4%|publisher= [[Interfax-Ukraine]] |date=6 January 2017}}</ref>

''[[The Economist]]'' has compared the severity of Ukraine's recession to that of the Greek recession in 2011–2012 – pointing to Ukraine experiencing an 8–9% decline in GDP from 2014 to 2015 and Greece experiencing an 8.1% decline of GDP in 2011–2012, and noted that not all areas of Ukraine were equally effected by the economic downturn. Donetsk and Luhansk (the conflict zone) saw industrial production falling by 32% and 42% respectively. On the other hand, [[Lviv]], located over 1000&nbsp;km from the conflict, posted the largest jump in employment in the nation.<ref>{{cite news|url= https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2016/01/lviv-not-donetsk|title= The Ukrainian economy is not terrible everywhere|newspaper= The Economist}}</ref>

The economy of Ukraine has overcome{{when|date=November 2018}} the severe crisis caused by armed conflict in the eastern part of country. A 200% devaluation of the hryvnia in 2014–2015 made Ukrainian goods and services cheaper and more competitive.<ref>{{Cite web|url= http://en.clc.co.ua/management-and-legal-support-for-business-activity-in-ukraine/|title= Investing in Ukraine|last= Thor|first= Anatoliy|date= 14 May 2017}}</ref> In 2016, for the first time since 2010, the economy grew by more than 2%.<ref name="ukraine-economic-update-spring-2017"/> A 2017 World Bank statement projected growth of 2% in 2017, of 3.5% in 2018, and of 4% in 2019 and 2020.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/452534.html|title=World Bank affirms Ukraine's GDP growth forecast for 2017 at 2%|publisher=[[Interfax-Ukraine]]|date=3 October 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://economics.unian.info/2338558-world-bank-ukraines-economy-may-grow-35-in-2018.html|title=World Bank: Ukraine's economy may grow 3.5% in 2018|publisher=[[UNIAN]]|date=10 January 2018}}</ref> Inflation in Ukraine in 2017 was 13.7% (12.4% in 2016).<ref name="UNIAN2337517">{{cite web|url=https://economics.unian.info/m/2337517-growth-of-consumer-prices-in-ukraine-accelerates-to-almost-14-in-2017-statistics.html|title=Growth of consumer prices in Ukraine accelerates to almost 14% in 2017|publisher=[[UNIAN]]|date=9 January 2018}}</ref>

Since about 2015, there has been a growing number of Ukrainians working in the [[European Union]], particularly [[Poland]]. [[Eurostat]] reported that 662,000 Ukrainians received EU residence permits in 2017, with 585,439 issued by Poland. The head of the [[National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine|National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine]] has estimated that up to 9 million Ukrainians work abroad for some part of the year, and 3.2 million have regular full-time work abroad with most not planning to return. World Bank statistics show that money remittances back to Ukraine have roughly doubled from 2015 to 2018, worth about 4% of GDP.<ref name=bl-20190220>{{cite news |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-20/eastern-europe-feeds-on-a-shrinking-ukraine |title=Eastern Europe Feeds on a Shrinking Ukraine |last=Bershidsky |first=Leonid |publisher=Bloomberg |date=20 February 2019 |access-date=24 June 2019}}</ref><ref name=wilsoncenter-20190514>{{cite web |url=https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/losing-brains-and-brawn-outmigration-ukraine-0 |title=Losing Brains and Brawn: Outmigration from Ukraine |last=Kiryukhin |first=Denys |publisher=Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars |date=14 May 2019 |access-date=24 June 2019}}</ref>

In Q1 2019, China became Ukraine's largest trading partner, replacing Russia.<ref name="eu191001" /><ref name="kyivpost200216" /> In Q3 of 2019, real GDP grew by 4.2%. The main driving factors include: increased purchasing power of the population in conditions of increase of the level of wages (during nine months of 2019 real wages increased by 9.5%); high level of business activity and preservation of investment activity, which stimulated mainly the development of construction, in particular, of industrial and transport infrastructure facilities; active consumer lending; maintaining the high dynamics of agricultural development; favourable price situation on selected world commodity markets for domestic exports and others.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/realnij-vvp-u-iii-kvartali-zris-na-42-derzhstat|title=Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine – State Statistics Service: Real GDP growth in Q3 made up 4.2%|website=www.kmu.gov.ua}}</ref> Ukraine made its largest payment on debt in 2019 at $1.1 billion.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.unian.info/economics/10672101-ukraine-making-largest-payment-on-debt-in-2019-at-1-1-bln.html|title=Ukraine making largest payment on debt in 2019 at $1.1 bln|website=www.unian.info|date=3 September 2019 }}</ref>

In 2019, [[Fitch Ratings]], a global leader in credit ratings and research, upgraded Ukraine's Long-Term  foreign and National Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) from "B−" to "B" and improved the outlook on the credit rating from stable to positive. Ukraine has demonstrated timely access to fiscal and external financing, improving macroeconomic stability, and declining public indebtedness.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/kreditnij-rejting-idr-ukrayini-pidvishcheno-z-b-do-b,|title=Credit rating (07 September 2019)}}</ref>

Ukraine moved up seven positions in the annual World Bank Doing Business 2020 report.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayina-pidnyalasya-odrazu-na-7-punktiv-v-rejtingu-doing-business-2020-ta-posila-64-misce-sered-190-krayin|title=Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine – Ukraine improved 7 positions and is ranked #64 (out of 190 States) in World Bank Doing Business 2020 report|website=www.kmu.gov.ua}}</ref> Prudent macroeconomic management helped reduce inflation and interest rates in 2019. Inflation eased to 4.1% at the end of 2019 and 2.4% in February 2020.{{citation needed|date=December 2023}}

In 2020, Ukraine's GDP fell by 4.4%, due to the [[COVID-19 pandemic]].<ref>{{Cite web|title=Ukraine's GDP fell by 4.4 pct in 2020: Ukrainian national bank – Xinhua {{!}} English.news.cn|url=http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-01/22/c_139689983.htm|access-date=26 May 2021|website=www.xinhuanet.com|archive-date=7 March 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210307063405/http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-01/22/c_139689983.htm|url-status=dead}}</ref> On 27 October 2020, the [[Constitutional Court of Ukraine]] ruled that anti-corruption legislation, including the mandatory electronic declaration of income, was unconstitutional.<ref name=unian-20201113>{{cite news |url=https://www.unian.info/politics/ambassador-maasikas-imf-eu-financial-aid-visa-free-travel-depend-on-fighting-corruption-11218355.html |title=Ambassador Maasikas: IMF, EU financial aid, visa-free travel depend on fighting corruption |website=UNIAN |date=13 November 2020 |access-date=27 November 2020}}</ref> President [[Volodymyr Zelenskyy]] warned that if the [[Verkhovna Rada|Ukrainian parliament]] did not restore these anti-corruption laws, foreign aid, loans and visa-free travel to the European Union were at risk. The governor of the National Bank of Ukraine reported that Ukraine will not receive the scheduled $700 million IMF load before the end of 2020 because of the issue. IMF assessment teams had not visited Kyiv for eight months, which is necessary for further IMF loan tranches to be released.<ref name=reuters-20201102>{{cite news |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-politics-imf-idUSKBN27I2JN |title=Back me or put IMF loans and EU visa-free deal at risk, Ukraine's president warns |last1=Zinets |first1=Natalia |last2=Polityuk |first2=Pavel |publisher=Reuters |date=2 November 2020 |access-date=27 November 2020}}</ref><ref name=intellinews-20201114>{{cite news |url=https://www.intellinews.com/nbu-says-no-imf-tranche-for-ukraine-this-year-196579/ |title=NBU says no IMF tranche for Ukraine this year |website=bne IntelliNews |location=Berlin |date=14 November 2020 |access-date=27 November 2020}}</ref> In February 2021, economist [[Anders Åslund]] wrote "for months, senior Ukrainian officials have been claiming that the Ukrainian government has done everything the [IMF] could possibly demand" but "this happy talk was always detached from reality", and the relationship with the IMF remains critical.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/imf-puts-ukraine-on-pause-over-corruption-concerns/|title=IMF puts Ukraine on pause over corruption concerns|date=16 February 2021|archive-url=https://archive.today/20210216161016/https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/imf-puts-ukraine-on-pause-over-corruption-concerns/|archive-date=16 February 2021|url-status=live}}</ref>

On 21 July 2022, Ukraine devalued the Ukrainian hryvnia by 25% against the U.S. dollar due to the economic impact of [[Russian invasion of Ukraine|ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine]], to eliminate currency speculation and to improve the international competitiveness of business. The previous day it requested a two-year payment freeze on international bonds; in 2020 it had $130 billion of external debt.<ref name=reuters-20220721>{{cite news |url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ukraines-central-bank-devalues-hryvnia-by-25-against-us-dollar-2022-07-21/ |title=Ukraine devalues hryvnia currency by 25% against U.S. dollar |last1=Zinets |first1=Natalia |last2=Vasovic |first2=Aleksandar |publisher=Reuters |date=21 July 2022 |access-date=1 September 2022}}</ref> When the 2022 Russian invasion began, Ukraine's economy was predicted by the IMF to shrink by up to 35%.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/14/ukraine-economy-shrink-2022-imf-russia-war|title=Ukraine economy could shrink by up to 35% in 2022, says IMF|work=[[The Guardian]]|date=14 March 2022|access-date=31 March 2022|last=Elliott|first=Larry}}</ref>

Despite improvements, as in Moldova [[corruption in Ukraine]] remains an obstacle to [[Accession of Ukraine to the European Union|joining the EU]]; the country was rated 104th out of 180 in the [[Corruption Perceptions Index]] for 2023.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-01-30 |title=CPI 2023 for Eastern Europe & Central Asia: Autocracy & weak justice… |url=https://www.transparency.org/en/news/cpi-2023-eastern-europe-central-asia-autocracy-weak-justice-systems-widespread-enabling-corruption |access-date=2024-01-31 |website=Transparency.org |language=en}}</ref>